Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
07 - 14 October 2025
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of northern Somalia, central to southern Ethiopia, north-western South Sudan and south-western Sudan, and most parts of Rwanda and Burundi.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over most parts of South Sudan, central Somalia, southern Uganda and western Kenya.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures eexpected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than average temperatures expected over northern Sudan and regions within the Great Rift Valley.
- Rainfall exceeding the 95th percentile (the highest 5% on record) expected over south-eastern Ethiopia and northern Somalia.
- There is a likelihood of Flooding incidences over the flood prone areas in south-eastern and pockets in central-western Ethiopia.
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (>32℃) expected in Afar region of Ethiopia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea and eastern Ethiopia.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over central Ethiopia, central to south-western Kenya, parts of northern and central Tanzania, and western regions of both Rwanda and Burundi.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress levels expected in parts of the Red Sea coast, and Afar region in Ethiopia.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (above 200mm) expected over a few parts of southern Ethiopia.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected in most parts of northern and southern Somalia, central to southern Ethiopia, western and central Uganda, Rwanda, northern Burundi, western South Sudan and south-western Sudan.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected in parts of eastern and northern Tanzania, southern and eastern Kenya, southern Burundi, central Somalia, Eritrea, and south-eastern regions of both Sudan and South Sudan.
Weekly Forecasts
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Temperature forecast
Mean temperatures
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of southern to north-eastern Sudan, South Sudan, central to northern Uganda, northern and eastern Kenya, Tanzania, Djibouti, and most parts of Somalia.
- Mild temperature …
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- Wetter-than-usual conditions expected over western regions of Rwanda and Burundi, south-western Kenya, and central regions of Tanzania
- Drier than usual conditions expected over eastern Kenya, southern Somalia, south-eastern, and south-western Tanzania.
Heat Stress
Heat Stress
- Elevated levels of heat stress are likely in coastal regions of Tanzania, Kenya, and southern Somalia, as well as regions of eastern South Sudan and south-eastern Sudan.
Floods update
- Heavy rainfall anticipated in south-western Kenya, northern and central Tanzania, and western regions of Burundi. Moderate rainfall is expected in the southern regions of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA).
Rainfall forecast
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (greater than 200mm) expected in isolated regions of Burundi and Tanzania.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over western and southern Uganda, isolated areas in southern South Sudan, parts of northern and southern …
Floods update
- Riverine and flash floods were observed over parts of Kenya, Somalia, Uganda, Tanzania and Ethiopia in the past week. Given the heavy to very heavy rainfall forecast in the coming week over parts of Rwanda, …