Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
21 - 28 July 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over south-western parts of Sudan, western to northern parts of Ethiopia, northern Uganda and central to western areas in South Sudan.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over southern regions of Sudan, western Eritrea, central to eastern Uganda and western regions of Kenya.
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over parts western to eastern Sudan, western to northern parts of Ethiopia, western parts of Eritrea, isolated areas in central, western and southern South Sudan.
Floods update
- Flooding incidences expected over some parts of western to eastern Sudan, western to northern parts of Ethiopia, with pocket areas in western Eritrea, some areas in central, western and southern South Sudan.
- Communities in high-risk areas are advised to exercise caution during this period.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over a few isolated regions across the GHA.
Mean temperatures
- Elevated temperatures exceeding 32°C expected over Djibouti, central to eastern parts of Sudan, coastal parts of Eritrea, northern coastal regions of Somalia, and north-eastern parts of Ethiopia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over Rwanda, Burundi, central to western regions of Kenya, central to southern Tanzania and central to northern parts of Ethiopia.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress within the ‘Extreme Caution’ category expected over most parts of South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, central to northern Somalia and north-eastern regions of Ethiopia. Elevated heat stress within the ‘Danger’ category expected over parts of the Afar region in Ethiopia extending into parts of central Eritrea, isolated areas along the coastline of Eritrea and a few pockets over northern Sudan.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (greater than 200 mm) expected over western to northern parts of Ethiopia and isolated areas in south-western Sudan and northern South Sudan.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200 mm) expected over parts of southern Sudan, most parts of South Sudan, northern parts of Uganda, western regions of Kenya, western Eritrea and western to northern parts of Ethiopia.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over eastern and southern Tanzania, southern Kenya, southern Somalia, central regions of Sudan, and some parts of eastern Ethiopia.
Weekly Forecasts
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Temperature forecast
- Moderate temperatures (20-32 ℃) expected in most parts of the country, with temperatures above 32 ℃ expected in parts of the north-western coastal regions.
Floods update
Floods Update
- The expected very heavy rainfall over few places in north-western Kenya, most parts of Ethiopia, north-western Somalia, eastern and north-western South Sudan, south-western and south-eastern Sudan, and western Eritrea is likely to lead …
Rainfall forecast
- Light rainfall is expected in most parts of the country.
Temperature forecast (Anomalies)
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over part of eastern South Sudan and north-eastern Somalia.
Temperature forecast
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (above 32℃) expected over most parts of central to northern Sudan, north-eastern Ethiopia, Djibouti, parts of Eritrea and north-western Somalia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of central …
Rainfall forecast
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (above 200mm) expected over areas in central to northern Ethiopia and south-western Sudan.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of Ethiopia, western Kenya, central to northern Uganda, South Sudan, southern …