Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
07 - 14 October 2025
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of northern Somalia, central to southern Ethiopia, north-western South Sudan and south-western Sudan, and most parts of Rwanda and Burundi.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over most parts of South Sudan, central Somalia, southern Uganda and western Kenya.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures eexpected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than average temperatures expected over northern Sudan and regions within the Great Rift Valley.
- Rainfall exceeding the 95th percentile (the highest 5% on record) expected over south-eastern Ethiopia and northern Somalia.
- There is a likelihood of Flooding incidences over the flood prone areas in south-eastern and pockets in central-western Ethiopia.
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (>32℃) expected in Afar region of Ethiopia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea and eastern Ethiopia.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over central Ethiopia, central to south-western Kenya, parts of northern and central Tanzania, and western regions of both Rwanda and Burundi.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress levels expected in parts of the Red Sea coast, and Afar region in Ethiopia.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (above 200mm) expected over a few parts of southern Ethiopia.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected in most parts of northern and southern Somalia, central to southern Ethiopia, western and central Uganda, Rwanda, northern Burundi, western South Sudan and south-western Sudan.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected in parts of eastern and northern Tanzania, southern and eastern Kenya, southern Burundi, central Somalia, Eritrea, and south-eastern regions of both Sudan and South Sudan.
Weekly Forecasts
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Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over Uganda, northern and southern regions of Somalia, eastern Rwanda and Burundi, central to southern Tanzania, south-western Kenya, southern South Sudan and parts of western and eastern Ethiopia. …
Heat Stress
Heat Stress
- Elevated levels of heat stress are likely in coastal regions of Tanzania, Kenya and southern Somalia, as well as regions in northern and eastern South Sudan and south-eastern Sudan.
Temperature forecast
Mean temperatures
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of southern to north-eastern Sudan, South Sudan, central to northern Uganda, northern and eastern Kenya, Tanzania, Djibouti and most parts of Somalia.
- Mild temperature …
Floods update
- High risk of riverine and flash flooding is anticipated in parts of central to northern Kenya, a few regions in southern Somalia and cross-border regions of eastern Rwanda, Burundi, and north-western Tanzania where heavy to …
Temperature forecast
- Moderate temperatures (20 - 32 ℃) expected over the whole country.
Rainfall forecast
- Heavy rainfall (greater than 200mm) over isolated areas in south-western Somalia.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected in southern parts of the country.
- Light rainfall (less than 50mm) to dry conditions expected over central to the northern …