Weekly Forecast

At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.

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07 - 14 October 2025

Rainfall

Temperature

Rainfall forecast (anomalies)

Rainfall anomalies

  • More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of northern Somalia, central to southern Ethiopia, north-western South Sudan and south-western Sudan, and most parts of Rwanda and Burundi.  
  • Less than usual rainfall expected over most parts of South Sudan, central Somalia, southern Uganda and western Kenya.
Temperature forecast (Anomalies)

Temperature anomalies

  • Warmer than usual temperatures eexpected over most parts of the GHA. 
  • Cooler than average temperatures expected over northern Sudan and regions within the Great Rift Valley.
Heavy rainfall
  • Rainfall exceeding the 95th percentile (the highest 5% on record) expected over south-eastern Ethiopia and northern Somalia.  
Floods update
  • There is a likelihood of Flooding incidences over the flood prone areas in south-eastern and pockets in central-western Ethiopia.
Temperature forecast

Mean temperatures

  • High temperatures (>32℃) expected in Afar region of Ethiopia.   
  • Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea and eastern Ethiopia.   
  • Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over central Ethiopia, central to south-western Kenya, parts of northern and central Tanzania, and western regions of both Rwanda and Burundi.  
Heat Stress

Heat Stress

  • Elevated heat stress levels expected in parts of the Red Sea coast, and Afar region in Ethiopia.    
Rainfall forecast

Total rainfall

  • Heavy rainfall (above 200mm) expected over a few parts of southern Ethiopia. 
  • Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected in most parts of northern and southern Somalia, central to southern Ethiopia, western and central Uganda, Rwanda, northern Burundi, western South Sudan and south-western Sudan.
  • Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected in parts of eastern and northern Tanzania, southern and eastern Kenya, southern Burundi, central Somalia, Eritrea, and south-eastern regions of both Sudan and South Sudan. 

Weekly Forecasts

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Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)

Rainfall anomalies

  • Wetter than usual conditions expected over Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, most parts of Kenya, southern Somalia, southern and south-western Ethiopia, central to southern South Sudan, and northern Tanzania.
  • Drier than usual conditions expected over …
21 - 28 November 2023 Read More
Temperature forecast
Temperature forecast
  • Moderate temperatures (20-32 ℃) expected in most parts of the country.
  • Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over isolated areas in northern Somalia.
21 - 28 November 2023 Read More
Rainfall forecast
Rainfall forecast
  • Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected in southern parts of the country.
  • Light rainfall expected (less than 50mm) expected parts of central to northern regions of the country.
14 - 21 November 2023 Read More
Rainfall forecast
Rainfall forecast
  • Heavy rainfall (greater than 200mm) over a few regions in south-western Somalia.
  • Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected in southern and north-western parts of the country.
  • Light rainfall (less than 50mm) to dry conditions expected over central …
14 - 21 November 2023 Read More
Heat Stress
Heat Stress

Heat Stress

  • Elevated levels of heat stress expected over parts of central to southern Sudan, South Sudan, central to southern Somalia, eastern Kenya, and most coastal regions.
14 - 21 November 2023 Read More
Heavy rainfall
Heavy rainfall

Exceptional rainfall

  • Extremely heavy rainfall expected over cross-border regions of northern Kenya to south-eastern Somalia and south-eastern South Sudan, south-western Ethiopia, and north-western Kenya..
  • Heavy to very heavy rainfall expected in most parts of central …
14 - 21 November 2023 Read More