Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
26 May - 02 June 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of Ethiopia, northern Somalia, south-western parts of South Sudan, southern Tanzania, central regions of Kenya and Somalia-Kenya coastal border.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over parts of Somalia, southern Sudan, South Sudan and Uganda.
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over the western parts and north-eastern parts of Ethiopia extending to northern parts of Somalia and some parts of South Sudan.
Floods Update
- Most of the places in western parts and north-eastern parts of Ethiopia, and northern parts of Somalia and some parts of South Sudan are likely to experience flooding incidences in the coming week. During this period, communities in high-risk areas are encouraged to be cautious.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over parts of northern Sudan and other isolated regions across the GHA.
Mean temperatures
- Elevated temperatures exceeding 32°C expected over southern parts of Sudan, Djibouti and north-eastern parts of Ethiopia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over Rwanda, Burundi, central to western regions of Kenya, Tanzania and most of the highlands across the GHA.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress within the ‘Extreme Caution’ category expected over most parts of South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, eastern and northern Kenya, central to southern Somalia and north-eastern regions of Ethiopia.
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over western parts of South Sudan, some parts of northern Uganda, western and eastern parts of Ethiopia, isolated areas in northern and southern Somalia, and southern parts of Tanzania.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of central to eastern Tanzania, western Kenya, Somalia, southern Ethiopia and some parts of south-eastern Ethiopia.
Weekly Forecasts
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Heavy rainfall
Exceptional rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (reaching top 10% on record) expected over eastern and western parts of Tanzania, as well as parts of south-eastern Ethiopia and north-eastern Uganda.
- Heavy rainfall (reaching top 10% on record) expected …
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over most parts of the equatorial and southern regions.
Heat Stress
Heat Stress
- Elevated levels of heat stress expected in most parts of South Sudan, north-western and eastern parts of the Greater Horn of Africa Region.
Temperature forecast
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (above 32℃) expected over isolated areas in center-north and north-eastern South Sudan, isolated regions in north-eastern Ethiopia, and parts of southern Sudan.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts …
Rainfall forecast
- Dry conditions expected over central to northern parts of Somalia.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected in central and northwestern parts of the country.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most central to southern parts …
Temperature forecast (Anomalies)
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures predicted over most parts of the region.
- Cooler than usual temperatures forecast over central to eastern parts of South Sudan and isolated areas in Kenya, northern Uganda and Central …