Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
11 - 18 November 2025
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over central to southern regions of South Sudan, south-western Ethiopia, western Tanzania, and central to western Uganda.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over central to southern Kenya, part of central to southern Somalia, most parts of Tanzania, Rwanda, and parts of Burundi.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the region.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over areas in central to north-western Sudan, south-western Ethiopia, and isolated areas in Kenya.
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over central Kenya, Rwanda, and isolated areas in Uganda and north-western Tanzania.
Flood
- There is a likelihood of Flooding incidences over the flood prone areas in most part of Rwanda, north-central Tanzania, and small pockets in south-western Ethiopia.
Mean temperatures
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, Tanzania, eastern and northern Kenya, Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea, eastern Ethiopia and eastern parts of both Rwanda and Burundi.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over north-western Sudan, central to northern Ethiopia, central to western Kenya, northern Somalia, southern Uganda, and parts of Burundi and Rwanda.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress levels expected expected in parts of southern Somalia and coastal areas of Tanzania.
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected in Rwanda, Burundi, western to north-western Tanzania, western to central Uganda, parts of central and western Kenya, southern South Sudan and south-western Ethiopia.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected in eastern to southern Tanzania, most parts of Kenya, northern and southern Somalia, much of south-western Ethiopia, and central to southern South Sudan.
Weekly Forecasts
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Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over southern regions of Sudan, western parts of South Sudan, northern Uganda, western Kenya and central to western Ethiopia.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over a few regions …
Temperature forecast (Anomalies)
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
Temperature forecast
- Moderate temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of Somalia, with temperatures exceeding 32 ℃ over parts of north-western coastal regions.
Heavy rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile (the highest 10% on record) expected over south-western Sudan, north-western regions of South Sudan, and western Ethiopia.
Heat Stress
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress levels expected in most parts of Sudan, northern regions of South Sudan, Afar region in Ethiopia, Djibouti and coastal regions of Eritrea and northern Somalia.
Rainfall forecast
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (above 200mm) expected over parts of western regions of both Ethiopia and South Sudan.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected in most parts of central to northern Uganda, central to western South Sudan, …