Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
20 - 27 October 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall Anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over western and northern parts of South Sudan, south-eastern Ethiopia, central Somalia, south-western Uganda, western Rwanda and isolated areas in Kenya and Burundi.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over central to south-western Ethiopia, southern Somalia, Kenya, southern South Sudan, most parts of Uganda, Burundi and Tanzania.
Exceptional Rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th expected over south-eastern Ethiopia, central Somalia, south-western Uganda, and isolated areas in central Kenya.
Floods
- Flooding incidences expected over some parts of central Somalia, areas in south-eastern Ethiopia, and south-western Uganda.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over north-western parts of Sudan and few isolated regions across the GHA.
Temperature
- Elevated temperatures exceeding 32°C expected over a small area in south eastern part of Sudan and in north-eastern parts of Ethiopia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32°C) expected over most parts of the region.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20°C) expected over central to western regions of Kenya, central Tanzania, central to northern parts of Ethiopia and western regions of Rwanda and Burundi.
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200 mm) expected over central to western parts of South Sudan, south-eastern Ethiopia, central to south-western Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and isolated areas in central Kenya and north-western Tanzania.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of South Sudan, southern Ethiopia, most parts of Kenya and Somalia, eastern Uganda, eastern and north-western Tanzania.
Heat stress
- Elevated heat stress within the ‘Extreme Caution’ category expected over most parts of South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, Somalia, some parts of Eastern Kenya, some parts of north-eastern Ethiopia and some parts of southern Tanzania.
Weekly Forecasts
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Rainfall forecast
- Light rainfall is expected in most parts of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Moderate temperatures (20-32 ℃) expected in most parts of the country, with temperatures above 32 ℃ expected in parts of the north-western coastal regions.
Floods update
Floods Update
- The expected very heavy rainfall over few places in central to western Kenya, north-eastern Uganda, southern, eastern and northern Ethiopia, western Eritrea and western and eastern Sudan is likely to lead to flooding. …
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over parts of central to north-western Kenya, south-eastern and north-western South Sudan, south-western to northern Ethiopia, western Eritrea, and northern Somalia.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over central …
Heavy rainfall
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall amounts exceeding the top 10% on record expected over north-western Kenya, most parts of Ethiopia, north-western Somalia, eastern and north-western South Sudan, south-western and south-eastern Sudan, and western Eritrea.
Heat Stress
Heat Stress
- Elevated levels of heat stress expected in north-central Sudan, north-eastern Ethiopia and coastal Eritrea.