Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
17 - 24 February 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of Rwanda, Burundi, northern, eastern and southern Tanzania, south-western Kenya, central to western Uganda and southern parts of South Sudan.
- Less than usual rainfall expected in parts of western Tanzania.
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over eastern parts of Rwanda and Burundi, and parts of northern and southern Tanzania.
- Most of the eastern parts of Rwanda and Burundi, as well as northern and southern Tanzania, are likely to experience flooding incidences in the coming week. During this period, communities in high-risk areas are encouraged to be cautious.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over parts of south-western Tanzania, parts of western Kenya and other isolated regions across the GHA.
Mean temperatures
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, southern and northern Ethiopia, Djibouti, and Eritrea.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over parts of north-western Sudan, central Ethiopia, central to western Kenya, northern Somalia, and western regions of Rwanda and Burundi.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress in “Extreme Caution” category expected over eastern Tanzania, eastern South Sudan and eastern Kenya into southern Somalia.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (>200mm) expected over parts of southern Tanzania.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of Burundi, Rwanda, Tanzania and south-western parts of Kenya.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of Uganda and southern parts of South Sudan.
Weekly Forecasts
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Floods update
- Heavy rainfall is anticipated in central parts of Tanzania, Burundi, and southern parts of Rwanda. This is likely to worsen the flooding situation experienced over isolated flood-prone areas.
Rainfall forecast
- Light rainfall expected (less than 50mm) over a few areas in the south-eastern regions of the country.
- Dry conditions expected in most parts of the country.
Heat Stress
Heat Stress
- Elevated levels of heat stress are likely in coastal regions of Tanzania, Kenya and Somalia, as well as regions of eastern South Sudan. Citizens are encouraged to keep hydrated during these times.
Rainfall forecast
- Light rainfall expected (less than 50mm) over a few areas in south-eastern regions of the country.
- Dry conditions expected in most parts of the country.
Heavy rainfall
Exceptional rainfall
- Heavy to very heavy rainfall expected in south-western Kenya into northern and central Tanzania, most parts of Burundi and southern Rwanda.
Temperature forecast (Anomalies)
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures predicted over most parts of Ethiopia, Somalia, Uganda, central to western Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania and parts of Sudan.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over eastern parts of South …