Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
17 - 24 February 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of Rwanda, Burundi, northern, eastern and southern Tanzania, south-western Kenya, central to western Uganda and southern parts of South Sudan.
- Less than usual rainfall expected in parts of western Tanzania.
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over eastern parts of Rwanda and Burundi, and parts of northern and southern Tanzania.
- Most of the eastern parts of Rwanda and Burundi, as well as northern and southern Tanzania, are likely to experience flooding incidences in the coming week. During this period, communities in high-risk areas are encouraged to be cautious.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over parts of south-western Tanzania, parts of western Kenya and other isolated regions across the GHA.
Mean temperatures
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, southern and northern Ethiopia, Djibouti, and Eritrea.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over parts of north-western Sudan, central Ethiopia, central to western Kenya, northern Somalia, and western regions of Rwanda and Burundi.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress in “Extreme Caution” category expected over eastern Tanzania, eastern South Sudan and eastern Kenya into southern Somalia.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (>200mm) expected over parts of southern Tanzania.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of Burundi, Rwanda, Tanzania and south-western parts of Kenya.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of Uganda and southern parts of South Sudan.
Weekly Forecasts
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Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over central to northern Tanzania, southern and western Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, and isolated areas in Ethiopia and Uganda.
- Drier than usual conditions over western and southern parts of …
Heat Stress
Heat Stress
- Elevated levels of heat stress are likely in coastal regions of Tanzania, Kenya, and southern Somalia, as well as regions of eastern South Sudan and south-eastern Sudan.
Temperature forecast (Anomalies)
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures predicted for most parts of the region.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over a few regions in eastern South Sudan into south-western Ethiopia, cross-border regions of southern Somalia and …
Heavy rainfall
Exceptional rainfall
- Heavy to very heavy rainfall expected in south-western Kenya, northern and central Tanzania, and western regions of Burundi.
Rainfall forecast
- Light rainfall (less than 50mm) expected over parts of northern and southern coastal regions
- Dry conditions expected over most parts of the country.
Rainfall forecast
- Light rainfall expected (less than 50mm) over south-western regions of the country.
- Dry conditions expected in northern and eastern parts of the country.