Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
31 March - 07 April 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most of southern Tanzania, central to southern Ethiopia, western and northern parts of South Sudan into southern parts of Sudan.
- Less than usual rainfall expected most parts of Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, western and northern Tanzania, southern and eastern Kenya, as well as a few regions in south-western Somalia and southern parts of South Sudan.
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over parts of southern Tanzania and isolated areas in central to southern Ethiopia.
- There is a likelihood of Flooding incidences over the flood prone areas over southern and north-eastern Ethiopia and central to north-western Rwanda.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over most highland regions across the GHA.
Mean temperatures
- Elevated temperatures exceeding 32℃ expected over most parts of central to eastern South Sudan and south-eastern parts of Sudan.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over parts of the Ethiopian highlands, central to western Kenya and western regions of both Rwanda and Burundi, and parts of south-western Tanzania.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress in the Danger category expected over the northern regions of South Sudan and south-eastern parts of Sudan, as well as eastern parts of both Tanzania, Kenya and south-western parts of Somalia.
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of southern Tanzania, southern Ethiopia and western regions of South Sudan, Rwanda and Burundi.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of Kenya, South Sudan, eastern Rwanda, parts of Burundi, central to northern Tanzania, southern and northern Somalia, and parts of southern Sudan and western Uganda.
Weekly Forecasts
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Heavy rainfall
Exceptional rainfall
- Heavy to very heavy (90th to 95th percentile) expected over eastern Burundi and northern and eastern regions of Tanzania.
Temperature forecast
- Moderate temperatures (20-32 ℃) expected in most parts of the country.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over northern Somalia.
Floods update
Floods update
- High risk flash floods and flooding anticipated over Burundi and northern to eastern regions of Tanzania. The heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely to worsen the flooding situation experienced over the flood-prone …
Heat Stress
Heat Stress
- Elevated levels of heat stress are likely in eastern Tanzania, eastern and coastal Kenya and parts of southern Somalia.
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over Burundi, eastern Rwanda, eastern and northern Tanzania, and south-western parts of Kenya.
- Drier than usual conditions expected in western parts of Tanzania.
Temperature forecast (Anomalies)
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures predicted over most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) with isolated regions of cooler than average temperatures.