Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
20 - 27 October 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall Anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over western and northern parts of South Sudan, south-eastern Ethiopia, central Somalia, south-western Uganda, western Rwanda and isolated areas in Kenya and Burundi.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over central to south-western Ethiopia, southern Somalia, Kenya, southern South Sudan, most parts of Uganda, Burundi and Tanzania.
Exceptional Rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th expected over south-eastern Ethiopia, central Somalia, south-western Uganda, and isolated areas in central Kenya.
Floods
- Flooding incidences expected over some parts of central Somalia, areas in south-eastern Ethiopia, and south-western Uganda.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over north-western parts of Sudan and few isolated regions across the GHA.
Temperature
- Elevated temperatures exceeding 32°C expected over a small area in south eastern part of Sudan and in north-eastern parts of Ethiopia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32°C) expected over most parts of the region.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20°C) expected over central to western regions of Kenya, central Tanzania, central to northern parts of Ethiopia and western regions of Rwanda and Burundi.
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200 mm) expected over central to western parts of South Sudan, south-eastern Ethiopia, central to south-western Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and isolated areas in central Kenya and north-western Tanzania.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of South Sudan, southern Ethiopia, most parts of Kenya and Somalia, eastern Uganda, eastern and north-western Tanzania.
Heat stress
- Elevated heat stress within the ‘Extreme Caution’ category expected over most parts of South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, Somalia, some parts of Eastern Kenya, some parts of north-eastern Ethiopia and some parts of southern Tanzania.
Weekly Forecasts
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Heavy rainfall
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall amounts exceeding the top 10% on record expected over a few areas in southern Sudan, western Ethiopia and western South Sudan.
Rainfall forecast
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over parts of central to western South Sudan, western Ethiopia, southern Sudan, and parts of western Kenya.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected in central Sudan, eastern South …
Floods update
Floods Update
- The expected heavy rainfall over parts of southern Sudan, western Ethiopia and western South Sudan is likely to lead to flooding in these areas.
- Communities in the areas at risk are advised …
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of southern Sudan, northern and eastern South Sudan, western Ethiopia, northern Uganda and western Kenya.
- Less than usual rainfall expected in parts of western South …
Heat Stress
Heat Stress
- Highest levels of heat stress expected in eastern and central regions of Sudan.
Heavy rainfall
Exceptional rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (exceeding the top 10% on record) expected in the eastern South Sudan into south-western Ethiopia and western Kenya.