Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
29 April - 06 May 2025
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of South Sudan, western Ethiopia, eastern Kenya, central to southern Somalia, northern and southern Tanzania.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over parts of western Kenya, central Uganda, northern Somalia, and south-eastern Ethiopia.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda, Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea, western South Sudan and central to southern parts of Sudan.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over parts of northern Sudan, and eastern South Sudan.
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile (the highest 10% on record)expected over parts of southern Tanzania, southern and eastern Kenya, southern Somalia, and southern Ethiopia.
- There is a likelihood of isolated flash flood over the flood prone areas in southern Kenya, southern Tanzania, south-western Somalia and western Ethiopia.
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (> 32℃) expected in parts of southern Sudan.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over most parts of Burundi, Rwanda, central to western Kenya, and central Ethiopia.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress levels expected in parts of southern regions of Sudan and northern regions of South Sudan.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (> 200mm) expected in parts of southern Tanzania.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected in most parts of South Sudan, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, southern and north-eastern Tanzania, southern and eastern Kenya, central to southern Somalia, and central to western Ethiopia.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over parts of central Tanzania, central to north-western Kenya, eastern Ethiopia, north-western Somalia, and parts of southern Sudan.
Weekly Forecasts
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Heavy rainfall
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall amounts exceeding the top 10% on record expected over a few areas in central and southern Tanzania.
Temperature forecast
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over central to southern parts of Somalia.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over parts of northern Somalia.
Temperature forecast (Anomalies)
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over coastal parts of Kenya and Somalia, and parts of south-western Sudan.
Rainfall forecast
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over northern parts of Somalia.
Heat Stress
Heat Stress
- Extreme Exhaustion is forecast over parts of eastern Tanzania, eastern Kenya and eastern South Sudan.
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected in parts of south-western Kenya and central to eastern Tanzania.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over central to western regions of Tanzania.