Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
15 - 22 October 2025
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over central to northern regions of South Sudan, southern Ethiopia, central Somalia and parts of western Kenya, central and northern Uganda.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over most parts of eastern Kenya, western and eastern Tanzania, south-eastern South Sudan, and north-western Somalia.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than average temperatures expected over south-eastern Ethiopia and other isolated areas across the GHA.
- Rainfall exceeding the 95th percentile (the highest 5% on record) expected over cross-border regions of south-eastern Ethiopia, central Somalia and parts of north-eastern Kenya.
- There is a likelihood of Flooding incidences over the flood prone areas in south-eastern and central-southern Ethiopia and central Somalia.
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (>32℃) expected in Afar region of Ethiopia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea and eastern Ethiopia.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over central Ethiopia, central to south-western Kenya, and parts of western regions of Burundi, Rwanda, and Uganda.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress levels expected in northern regions of South Sudan, eastern Sudan and Afar region in Ethiopia.
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected in most parts of Rwanda, Uganda, South Sudan, southern Ethiopia, central Somalia and parts of western Kenya.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected in parts of eastern and western Tanzania, southern and eastern Kenya, northern Somalia, south-eastern South Sudan and southern regions of Sudan.
Weekly Forecasts
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Temperature forecast (Anomalies)
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures predicted over most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA).
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected in isolated areas in northern Somalia, central Ethiopia, and central Kenya.
Rainfall forecast
- Heavy rainfall (more than 200mm) expected over isolated areas in north parts of South Sudan.
- Moderate rainfall (50 –200 mm) expected in most parts of the country.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over …
Rainfall forecast
- Light rainfall (less than 50) predicted over central to southern parts and northern parts of the country.
- Dry conditions expected over the northern tip of Somalia.
Temperature forecast
- Hot temperatures (above 32℃) expected over isolated areas in north-western coastal parts of Somalia.
- Moderate temperatures (20 - 32 ℃) expected in most parts of the country.
Heavy rainfall
Exceptional rainfall
- Heavy to very heavy rainfall (top 10%-5%) expected in much of central Ethiopia, northern and isolated areas in South Sudan, and western and isolated areas of southern Sudan.
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over western and isolated areas in eastern Ethiopia, parts of central to northern South Sudan, and isolated areas in southern Sudan.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over northern …