Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
26 May - 02 June 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of Ethiopia, northern Somalia, south-western parts of South Sudan, southern Tanzania, central regions of Kenya and Somalia-Kenya coastal border.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over parts of Somalia, southern Sudan, South Sudan and Uganda.
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over the western parts and north-eastern parts of Ethiopia extending to northern parts of Somalia and some parts of South Sudan.
Floods Update
- Most of the places in western parts and north-eastern parts of Ethiopia, and northern parts of Somalia and some parts of South Sudan are likely to experience flooding incidences in the coming week. During this period, communities in high-risk areas are encouraged to be cautious.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over parts of northern Sudan and other isolated regions across the GHA.
Mean temperatures
- Elevated temperatures exceeding 32°C expected over southern parts of Sudan, Djibouti and north-eastern parts of Ethiopia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over Rwanda, Burundi, central to western regions of Kenya, Tanzania and most of the highlands across the GHA.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress within the ‘Extreme Caution’ category expected over most parts of South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, eastern and northern Kenya, central to southern Somalia and north-eastern regions of Ethiopia.
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over western parts of South Sudan, some parts of northern Uganda, western and eastern parts of Ethiopia, isolated areas in northern and southern Somalia, and southern parts of Tanzania.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of central to eastern Tanzania, western Kenya, Somalia, southern Ethiopia and some parts of south-eastern Ethiopia.
Weekly Forecasts
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Heat Stress
Heat Stress
- Elevated levels of heat stress are likely in coastal regions of Tanzania, Kenya and southern Somalia, as well as regions in northern and eastern South Sudan and south-eastern Sudan.
Temperature forecast (Anomalies)
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures predicted in most parts of the region.
- Cooler than usual temperatures forecast over isolated regions across the GHA.
Temperature forecast
- Moderate temperatures (20-32 ℃) expected in most parts of the country.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over northwestern Somalia.
Temperature forecast
- Moderate temperatures (20 - 32 ℃) expected over the whole country.
Floods update
- Riverine and flash floods were observed over parts of Kenya, Somalia, Uganda, Tanzania and Ethiopia in the past week. Given the heavy to very heavy rainfall forecast in the coming week over parts of Rwanda, …
Temperature forecast
Mean temperatures
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of southern to north-eastern Sudan, South Sudan, central to northern Uganda, northern and eastern Kenya, Tanzania, Djibouti and most parts of Somalia.
- Mild temperature …