Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
10 - 17 June 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over south-western parts of Sudan, north-western South Sudan, western Ethiopia and isolated areas of eastern Tanzania.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over South Sudan, Uganda, western region of Kenya, central to northern Ethiopia and isolated areas over central to southern coastal Somalia.
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over the south-western parts of Ethiopia, and isolated areas in both southern Sudan and north-western South Sudan.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over isolated regions across the GHA.
Mean temperatures
- Elevated temperatures exceeding 32°C expected over Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti and north-eastern parts of Ethiopia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over Rwanda, Burundi, central to western regions of Kenya, central Tanzania, central to northern Ethiopia.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress within the ‘Extreme Caution’ category expected over most parts of South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, eastern and northern Kenya, Somalia and north-eastern regions of Ethiopia.
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200 mm) expected over parts of southern Sudan, north-western areas of South Sudan and western parts of Ethiopia.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over eastern and southern Tanzania, southern Kenya, central to southern Somalia, most parts of South Sudan, central to south-eastern Sudan, and some parts of southern Ethiopia.
Weekly Forecasts
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Heat Stress
Heat Stress
- Elevated levels of heat stress expected over parts of central to southern Sudan, South Sudan, central to southern Somalia, eastern Kenya, and most coastal regions.
Floods update
- Extremely heavy rainfall expected over a few places in northern Kenya and central and southern Somalia. Heavy to very heavy rainfall expected in most parts of Rwanda, Burundi, northern Tanzania, Kenya, southern Somalia, southern Ethiopia, …
Temperature forecast (Anomalies)
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures predicted in most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA).
- Cooler than usual temperatures forecast over parts of central Sudan, south-eastern South Sudan, northern Kenya, and a few …
Rainfall forecast
- Heavy rainfall (greater than 200mm) over a few regions in south-western Somalia.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected in southern and north-western parts of the country.
- Light rainfall (less than 50mm) to dry conditions expected over central …
Rainfall forecast
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (greater than 200mm) expected in north-western Tanzania, central and north-western Uganda, central to north-eastern Kenya, and south-western Somalia.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, northern and southern Tanzania, southern …
Temperature forecast
- Moderate temperatures (20 - 32 ℃) expected over the whole country.