Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
17 - 24 February 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of Rwanda, Burundi, northern, eastern and southern Tanzania, south-western Kenya, central to western Uganda and southern parts of South Sudan.
- Less than usual rainfall expected in parts of western Tanzania.
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over eastern parts of Rwanda and Burundi, and parts of northern and southern Tanzania.
- Most of the eastern parts of Rwanda and Burundi, as well as northern and southern Tanzania, are likely to experience flooding incidences in the coming week. During this period, communities in high-risk areas are encouraged to be cautious.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over parts of south-western Tanzania, parts of western Kenya and other isolated regions across the GHA.
Mean temperatures
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, southern and northern Ethiopia, Djibouti, and Eritrea.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over parts of north-western Sudan, central Ethiopia, central to western Kenya, northern Somalia, and western regions of Rwanda and Burundi.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress in “Extreme Caution” category expected over eastern Tanzania, eastern South Sudan and eastern Kenya into southern Somalia.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (>200mm) expected over parts of southern Tanzania.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of Burundi, Rwanda, Tanzania and south-western parts of Kenya.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of Uganda and southern parts of South Sudan.
Weekly Forecasts
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Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over western and northern parts of Ethiopia, western Eritrea, much of South Sudan, eastern and southern parts of Sudan, northern Uganda, and western Kenya.
- Drier than usual conditions …
Temperature forecast
Mean temperatures
- Hot temperatures (above 32 ℃) expected over central to northern Sudan, Afar region in Ethiopia, Djibouti, coastal regions of Eritrea, and north-western coastal parts of Somalia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20 - 32℃) …
Rainfall forecast
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (greater than 200) expected over isolated parts of western Ethiopia, northern South Sudan, and southern Sudan.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over southern Sudan, much of South Sudan, isolated areas in western …
Heavy rainfall
Exceptional rainfall
- Heavy to very heavy rainfall (top 10%-5%) expected in much of central Ethiopia, northern and isolated areas in South Sudan, and western and isolated areas of southern Sudan.
Rainfall forecast
- Heavy rainfall (more than 200mm) expected over isolated areas in north parts of South Sudan.
- Moderate rainfall (50 –200 mm) expected in most parts of the country.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over …
Rainfall forecast
- Light rainfall (less than 50) predicted over central to southern parts and northern parts of the country.
- Dry conditions expected over the northern tip of Somalia.