Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
27 October - 03 November 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall Anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over Rwanda, Burundi, western to southern parts of South Sudan, south-eastern Ethiopia, central to northern and south-eastern parts of Uganda, western region of Kenya and central to northern parts of Tanzania.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over most parts of Somalia, eastern Kenya, south-eastern parts of Uganda, eastern and western Tanzania.
Exceptional Rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th expected over south-eastern Ethiopia, isolated areas over central to southern parts of Kenya, isolated areas over central to north-western and south-western Uganda, isolated areas over northern Tanzania, and most parts of Rwanda and Burundi.
Floods
- Flooding incidences expected over some parts of south-eastern Ethiopia, central to southern parts of Kenya, central to north-western and south-western Uganda, northern Tanzania, most parts of Rwanda and Burundi.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over northern parts of Somalia and few isolated regions across the GHA.
Temperature
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32°C) expected over most parts of the region.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20°C) expected over central to western regions of Kenya, isolated areas over eastern and southern Tanzania, isolated areas over northern Somalia, central to northern parts of Ethiopia and western regions of Rwanda and Burundi.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (more than 200 mm) expected over isolated areas in southern Rwanda, isolated areas in central Burundi and isolated areas over northern Tanzania.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200 mm) expected over southern parts of South Sudan, most parts of Rwanda, Burundi and Uganda, central to northern parts of Tanzania, central to western regions of Kenya and south-eastern Ethiopia.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of South Sudan, southern Ethiopia, most parts Somalia, north-eastern and coastal regions of Kenya and southern parts of Tanzania.
Heat stress
- Elevated heat stress within the ‘Extreme Caution’ category expected over most parts of South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, central to southern parts of Somalia, some parts of Eastern Kenya, some parts of northeastern Ethiopia, and some parts of southern Tanzania.
Weekly Forecasts
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Rainfall forecast
- Dry conditions expected in most parts of the country, with light rainfall in the southern parts.
Floods update
Floods update
- Anticipate flash floods in flood-prone areas and most of Tanzania's coastal regions as a result of moderate to heavy rainfall.
Rainfall forecast
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over southern Rwanda, and most parts of Burundi and Tanzania.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected in Uganda, central to western and coastal regions of Kenya, south-western Ethiopia, …
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over parts of Uganda, Kenya and Ethiopia and most parts of Burundi, Rwanda and Tanzania,
- Drier than usual conditions expected in a few regions in western and southern …
Temperature forecast
Mean temperatures
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of South Sudan, Uganda, Tanzania, eastern and northern Kenya, Somalia, Djibouti, and Eritrea.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over parts of central …
Heat Stress
Heat Stress
- Elevated levels of heat stress are expected in eastern Tanzania, eastern Kenya, southern Somalia, and eastern South Sudan.