Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
20 - 27 October 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall Anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over western and northern parts of South Sudan, south-eastern Ethiopia, central Somalia, south-western Uganda, western Rwanda and isolated areas in Kenya and Burundi.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over central to south-western Ethiopia, southern Somalia, Kenya, southern South Sudan, most parts of Uganda, Burundi and Tanzania.
Exceptional Rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th expected over south-eastern Ethiopia, central Somalia, south-western Uganda, and isolated areas in central Kenya.
Floods
- Flooding incidences expected over some parts of central Somalia, areas in south-eastern Ethiopia, and south-western Uganda.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over north-western parts of Sudan and few isolated regions across the GHA.
Temperature
- Elevated temperatures exceeding 32°C expected over a small area in south eastern part of Sudan and in north-eastern parts of Ethiopia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32°C) expected over most parts of the region.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20°C) expected over central to western regions of Kenya, central Tanzania, central to northern parts of Ethiopia and western regions of Rwanda and Burundi.
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200 mm) expected over central to western parts of South Sudan, south-eastern Ethiopia, central to south-western Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and isolated areas in central Kenya and north-western Tanzania.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of South Sudan, southern Ethiopia, most parts of Kenya and Somalia, eastern Uganda, eastern and north-western Tanzania.
Heat stress
- Elevated heat stress within the ‘Extreme Caution’ category expected over most parts of South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, Somalia, some parts of Eastern Kenya, some parts of north-eastern Ethiopia and some parts of southern Tanzania.
Weekly Forecasts
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Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over south-western parts of Sudan, western to northern parts of Ethiopia, northern Uganda and central to western areas in South Sudan.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over southern …
Floods update
Floods update
- Flooding incidences expected over some parts of western to eastern Sudan, western to northern parts of Ethiopia, with pocket areas in western Eritrea, some areas in central, western and southern South Sudan.
- Communities …
Temperature forecast
Mean temperatures
- Elevated temperatures exceeding 32°C expected over Djibouti, central to eastern parts of Sudan, coastal parts of Eritrea, northern coastal regions of Somalia, and north-eastern parts of Ethiopia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected …
Floods update
Floods update
- Flooding incidences expected over parts of Sudan, Ethiopia, with pocket areas in northern Uganda and western South Sudan.
- Communities in high-risk areas are advised to exercise caution during this period.
Rainfall forecast
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200 mm) expected over parts of southern Sudan, most parts of South Sudan, northern parts of Uganda, western regions of Kenya, western Eritrea and western to northern parts of Ethiopia.
- Light …
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress within the ‘Extreme Caution’ category expected over most parts of South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, central to northern Somalia and north-eastern regions of Ethiopia. Elevated heat stress within the ‘Danger’ category expected …