Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
27 October - 03 November 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall Anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over Rwanda, Burundi, western to southern parts of South Sudan, south-eastern Ethiopia, central to northern and south-eastern parts of Uganda, western region of Kenya and central to northern parts of Tanzania.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over most parts of Somalia, eastern Kenya, south-eastern parts of Uganda, eastern and western Tanzania.
Exceptional Rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th expected over south-eastern Ethiopia, isolated areas over central to southern parts of Kenya, isolated areas over central to north-western and south-western Uganda, isolated areas over northern Tanzania, and most parts of Rwanda and Burundi.
Floods
- Flooding incidences expected over some parts of south-eastern Ethiopia, central to southern parts of Kenya, central to north-western and south-western Uganda, northern Tanzania, most parts of Rwanda and Burundi.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over northern parts of Somalia and few isolated regions across the GHA.
Temperature
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32°C) expected over most parts of the region.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20°C) expected over central to western regions of Kenya, isolated areas over eastern and southern Tanzania, isolated areas over northern Somalia, central to northern parts of Ethiopia and western regions of Rwanda and Burundi.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (more than 200 mm) expected over isolated areas in southern Rwanda, isolated areas in central Burundi and isolated areas over northern Tanzania.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200 mm) expected over southern parts of South Sudan, most parts of Rwanda, Burundi and Uganda, central to northern parts of Tanzania, central to western regions of Kenya and south-eastern Ethiopia.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of South Sudan, southern Ethiopia, most parts Somalia, north-eastern and coastal regions of Kenya and southern parts of Tanzania.
Heat stress
- Elevated heat stress within the ‘Extreme Caution’ category expected over most parts of South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, central to southern parts of Somalia, some parts of Eastern Kenya, some parts of northeastern Ethiopia, and some parts of southern Tanzania.
Weekly Forecasts
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Rainfall forecast
- Light rainfall expected (less than 50mm) over south-western regions of the country.
- Dry conditions expected in northern and eastern parts of the country.
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over Uganda, northern and southern regions of Somalia, eastern Rwanda and Burundi, central to southern Tanzania, south-western Kenya, southern South Sudan and parts of western and eastern Ethiopia. …
Heavy rainfall
Exceptional rainfall
- Heavy to very heavy rainfall expected in northern Somalia, central to northern Tanzania and eastern regions of Rwanda and Burundi.
Heat Stress
Heat Stress
- Elevated levels of heat stress are likely in coastal regions of Tanzania, Kenya and southern Somalia, as well as regions in northern and eastern South Sudan and south-eastern Sudan.
Rainfall forecast
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (greater than 200mm) expected in isolated regions of Burundi and Tanzania.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over western and southern Uganda, isolated areas in southern South Sudan, parts of northern and southern …
Rainfall forecast
- Light rainfall expected (less than 50mm) over parts of central to southern regions of the country.
- Dry conditions expected in northern parts of the country.