Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
27 October - 03 November 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall Anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over Rwanda, Burundi, western to southern parts of South Sudan, south-eastern Ethiopia, central to northern and south-eastern parts of Uganda, western region of Kenya and central to northern parts of Tanzania.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over most parts of Somalia, eastern Kenya, south-eastern parts of Uganda, eastern and western Tanzania.
Exceptional Rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th expected over south-eastern Ethiopia, isolated areas over central to southern parts of Kenya, isolated areas over central to north-western and south-western Uganda, isolated areas over northern Tanzania, and most parts of Rwanda and Burundi.
Floods
- Flooding incidences expected over some parts of south-eastern Ethiopia, central to southern parts of Kenya, central to north-western and south-western Uganda, northern Tanzania, most parts of Rwanda and Burundi.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over northern parts of Somalia and few isolated regions across the GHA.
Temperature
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32°C) expected over most parts of the region.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20°C) expected over central to western regions of Kenya, isolated areas over eastern and southern Tanzania, isolated areas over northern Somalia, central to northern parts of Ethiopia and western regions of Rwanda and Burundi.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (more than 200 mm) expected over isolated areas in southern Rwanda, isolated areas in central Burundi and isolated areas over northern Tanzania.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200 mm) expected over southern parts of South Sudan, most parts of Rwanda, Burundi and Uganda, central to northern parts of Tanzania, central to western regions of Kenya and south-eastern Ethiopia.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of South Sudan, southern Ethiopia, most parts Somalia, north-eastern and coastal regions of Kenya and southern parts of Tanzania.
Heat stress
- Elevated heat stress within the ‘Extreme Caution’ category expected over most parts of South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, central to southern parts of Somalia, some parts of Eastern Kenya, some parts of northeastern Ethiopia, and some parts of southern Tanzania.
Weekly Forecasts
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Temperature forecast
- Moderate temperatures (20 - 32 ℃) expected over the whole country.
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, most parts of Kenya, southern Somalia, southern and south-western Ethiopia, central to southern South Sudan, and northern Tanzania.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over …
Heat Stress
Heat Stress
- No extreme heat stress expected during the forecast period. However, elevated levels of heat stress are likely in areas over eastern Kenya to southern Somalia, coastal regions of Tanzania, cross-border regions of northern …
Heavy rainfall
Exceptional rainfall
- Extremely heavy rainfall expected in parts of central to northern Kenya, a few regions in southern Somalia and cross-border regions of eastern Rwanda, Burundi, and north-western Tanzania.
- Heavy to very heavy rainfall expected …
Temperature forecast (Anomalies)
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures predicted in most parts of the region.
- Cooler than usual temperatures forecast over parts of eastern South Sudan into south-western Ethiopia, north-eastern Kenya and other isolated regions across the …
Rainfall forecast
- Heavy rainfall (greater than 200mm) over isolated areas in south-western Somalia.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected in southern parts of the country.
- Light rainfall (less than 50mm) to dry conditions expected over central to the northern …