Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
17 - 24 February 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of Rwanda, Burundi, northern, eastern and southern Tanzania, south-western Kenya, central to western Uganda and southern parts of South Sudan.
- Less than usual rainfall expected in parts of western Tanzania.
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over eastern parts of Rwanda and Burundi, and parts of northern and southern Tanzania.
- Most of the eastern parts of Rwanda and Burundi, as well as northern and southern Tanzania, are likely to experience flooding incidences in the coming week. During this period, communities in high-risk areas are encouraged to be cautious.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over parts of south-western Tanzania, parts of western Kenya and other isolated regions across the GHA.
Mean temperatures
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, southern and northern Ethiopia, Djibouti, and Eritrea.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over parts of north-western Sudan, central Ethiopia, central to western Kenya, northern Somalia, and western regions of Rwanda and Burundi.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress in “Extreme Caution” category expected over eastern Tanzania, eastern South Sudan and eastern Kenya into southern Somalia.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (>200mm) expected over parts of southern Tanzania.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of Burundi, Rwanda, Tanzania and south-western parts of Kenya.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of Uganda and southern parts of South Sudan.
Weekly Forecasts
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Rainfall forecast
- Moderate rainfall (50 –200 mm) expected over central, western and eastern parts of the country.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over northern and southern parts of the country.
Rainfall forecast
- Moderate rainfall expected over central to southern parts of the country.
- Light rainfall predicted over isolated areas in central to northern Somalia.
- Dry conditions expected in central and northern parts of the country.
Temperature forecast
Mean temperatures
- Hot temperatures (above 32℃) expected over north-eastern parts of South Sudan, southern and south-eastern Sudan and isolated areas in western and northern parts of Ethiopia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20 - 32℃) expected …
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over western and central to northern South Sudan, central to north-eastern Kenya, southern Somalia, western and south-eastern Ethiopia, parts of Burundi, and southern Tanzania.
Temperature forecast
- Hot temperatures above 32℃ expected over north-eastern parts of South Sudan.
- Moderate to high temperatures (24 - 32 ℃) expected over most parts of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Moderate temperatures (20 - 32 ℃) expected over most parts of the country.