Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
11 - 18 November 2025
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over central to southern regions of South Sudan, south-western Ethiopia, western Tanzania, and central to western Uganda.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over central to southern Kenya, part of central to southern Somalia, most parts of Tanzania, Rwanda, and parts of Burundi.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the region.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over areas in central to north-western Sudan, south-western Ethiopia, and isolated areas in Kenya.
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over central Kenya, Rwanda, and isolated areas in Uganda and north-western Tanzania.
Flood
- There is a likelihood of Flooding incidences over the flood prone areas in most part of Rwanda, north-central Tanzania, and small pockets in south-western Ethiopia.
Mean temperatures
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, Tanzania, eastern and northern Kenya, Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea, eastern Ethiopia and eastern parts of both Rwanda and Burundi.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over north-western Sudan, central to northern Ethiopia, central to western Kenya, northern Somalia, southern Uganda, and parts of Burundi and Rwanda.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress levels expected expected in parts of southern Somalia and coastal areas of Tanzania.
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected in Rwanda, Burundi, western to north-western Tanzania, western to central Uganda, parts of central and western Kenya, southern South Sudan and south-western Ethiopia.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected in eastern to southern Tanzania, most parts of Kenya, northern and southern Somalia, much of south-western Ethiopia, and central to southern South Sudan.
Weekly Forecasts
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Rainfall forecast
- Light rainfall expected over a few parts of northern and southern parts of Somalia.
Temperature forecast
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (> 32℃) expected over parts of northern Sudan, Afar region in Ethiopia, and regions along the Red Sea coast.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of Somalia, South …
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of eastern South Sudan, northern Uganda, central to northern Ethiopia, and most parts of Eritrea and Djibouti.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over parts of …
Rainfall forecast
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (above 200mm) expected over parts a few regions in southern Sudan, northern Ethiopia, and north-eastern South Sudan.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of South Sudan, central to northern Ethiopia, …
Temperature forecast
- Moderate temperatures (20-32 ℃) expected in most parts of the country, with temperatures exceeding 32 ℃ over the north-western coastal regions.
Temperature forecast (Anomalies)
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over cross-border regions of South Sudan, Ethiopia and Sudan, and other isolated regions across the GHA.