Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
17 - 24 February 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of Rwanda, Burundi, northern, eastern and southern Tanzania, south-western Kenya, central to western Uganda and southern parts of South Sudan.
- Less than usual rainfall expected in parts of western Tanzania.
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over eastern parts of Rwanda and Burundi, and parts of northern and southern Tanzania.
- Most of the eastern parts of Rwanda and Burundi, as well as northern and southern Tanzania, are likely to experience flooding incidences in the coming week. During this period, communities in high-risk areas are encouraged to be cautious.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over parts of south-western Tanzania, parts of western Kenya and other isolated regions across the GHA.
Mean temperatures
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, southern and northern Ethiopia, Djibouti, and Eritrea.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over parts of north-western Sudan, central Ethiopia, central to western Kenya, northern Somalia, and western regions of Rwanda and Burundi.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress in “Extreme Caution” category expected over eastern Tanzania, eastern South Sudan and eastern Kenya into southern Somalia.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (>200mm) expected over parts of southern Tanzania.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of Burundi, Rwanda, Tanzania and south-western parts of Kenya.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of Uganda and southern parts of South Sudan.
Weekly Forecasts
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Heavy rainfall
Exceptional rainfall
- Heavy to very heavy rainfall (top 10%-5%) rainfall expected over north-eastern and central parts of Kenya, isolated areas over parts of south-eastern, western and northern Ethiopia, southern Somalia and isolated areas in southern …
Rainfall forecast
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (more than 200mm) expected over southern parts of Tanzania.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over south-western to eastern Ethiopia, southern, central to north-eastern Kenya, western Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda, and most parts of …
Temperature forecast
Mean temperatures
- Hot temperatures (above 32℃) expected over north-eastern parts of South Sudan.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20 - 32℃) expected over Sudan, southern and western South Sudan, eastern and southern Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, …
Temperature forecast (Anomalies)
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures forecast over most parts of Sudan, northern South Sudan, central parts of Somalia, eastern and northern Ethiopia, parts of central and southern Tanzania.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over …
Heavy rainfall
Exceptional rainfall
- Heavy to very heavy rainfall (top 10%-5%) rainfall expected over north-eastern and south-western parts of Ethiopia, parts of eastern Kenya, as well as southern and eastern Tanzania.
Temperature forecast
- Moderate to high temperatures (24 - 34 ℃) expected all over the country.