Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
21 - 28 July 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over south-western parts of Sudan, western to northern parts of Ethiopia, northern Uganda and central to western areas in South Sudan.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over southern regions of Sudan, western Eritrea, central to eastern Uganda and western regions of Kenya.
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over parts western to eastern Sudan, western to northern parts of Ethiopia, western parts of Eritrea, isolated areas in central, western and southern South Sudan.
Floods update
- Flooding incidences expected over some parts of western to eastern Sudan, western to northern parts of Ethiopia, with pocket areas in western Eritrea, some areas in central, western and southern South Sudan.
- Communities in high-risk areas are advised to exercise caution during this period.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over a few isolated regions across the GHA.
Mean temperatures
- Elevated temperatures exceeding 32°C expected over Djibouti, central to eastern parts of Sudan, coastal parts of Eritrea, northern coastal regions of Somalia, and north-eastern parts of Ethiopia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over Rwanda, Burundi, central to western regions of Kenya, central to southern Tanzania and central to northern parts of Ethiopia.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress within the ‘Extreme Caution’ category expected over most parts of South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, central to northern Somalia and north-eastern regions of Ethiopia. Elevated heat stress within the ‘Danger’ category expected over parts of the Afar region in Ethiopia extending into parts of central Eritrea, isolated areas along the coastline of Eritrea and a few pockets over northern Sudan.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (greater than 200 mm) expected over western to northern parts of Ethiopia and isolated areas in south-western Sudan and northern South Sudan.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200 mm) expected over parts of southern Sudan, most parts of South Sudan, northern parts of Uganda, western regions of Kenya, western Eritrea and western to northern parts of Ethiopia.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over eastern and southern Tanzania, southern Kenya, southern Somalia, central regions of Sudan, and some parts of eastern Ethiopia.
Weekly Forecasts
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Rainfall forecast
- Light rainfall (less than 50) predicted over southern and isolated areas in northern parts of the country.
- Dry conditions expected over central to northern parts of Somalia.
Heavy rainfall
Exceptional rainfall
- Extremely heavy rainfall expected in isolated areas of north-western Ethiopia.
- Heavy to very heavy rainfall expected in much of western and northern Ethiopia, western Eritrea, much of southern Sudan, and central to western …
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over western to northern parts of Ethiopia, western Eritrea, much of southern Sudan, north-western Uganda, south-western and few areas in northern South Sudan.
- Drier than usual conditions expected …
Rainfall forecast
- Light rainfall (less than 50) predicted over southern and northern parts of the country.
- Dry conditions expected over central to north-eastern parts of Somalia.
Rainfall forecast
- Heavy rainfall (more than 200mm) expected over isolated areas in central and northern parts of the country.
- Moderate rainfall (50 –200 mm) expected in most parts of the country.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) …
Rainfall forecast
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (greater than 200mm) expected over isolated parts in western Ethiopia, southern and western Sudan.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over southern Sudan, much of South Sudan, western Eritrea, western and northern Ethiopia, …