Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
27 May - 03 June 2025
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over western Ethiopia, north-eastern and western South Sudan South-eastern Sudan and isolated areas in western Kenya and southern Tanzania.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over most parts of Somalia, Uganda, southern Ethiopia, and parts of southern and northern South Sudan.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over parts of northern Sudan and other few areas across the GHA.
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile (the highest 10% on record) expected over few areas in western Ethiopia and South Sudan.
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (> 32℃) expected in southern regions of Sudan, coastal Eritrea, north-eastern Ethiopia, Djibouti, and coastal areas of northern Somalia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, north-western and coastal Tanzania, northern and eastern Kenya, Somalia, Eritrea, south-eastern Ethiopia.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over Rwanda, Burundi, parts of central and south-western Tanzania, central to western Kenya, south-western Uganda and the Ethiopian highlands.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress levels expected in Afar region in Ethiopia, southern Sudan and northern coastal Somalia.
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected in most parts of South Sudan, southern areas of Sudan, and western Ethiopia.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of Uganda, Rwanda, western and coastal Kenya, southern and eastern Tanzania, central to southern Somalia, central Ethiopia, western Eritrea, southern areas of Sudan, and south-eastern parts of South Sudan.
Weekly Forecasts
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Rainfall forecast
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over South Sudan, southern Sudan, western Ethiopia, and parts of northern Uganda and western Kenya.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over southern Sudan, Eritrea, parts of central …
Temperature forecast (Anomalies)
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than normal temperatures expected in the region except in isolated parts of eastern South Sudan, central to southern Ethiopia, central and western Kenya, and western Tanzania where cooler than normal temperatures are …
Rainfall forecast
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-100mm) expected over cross border regions of southern Sudan and northern South Sudan, western Ethiopia and coastal regions of Somalia and Kenya.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over parts …
Heavy rainfall
Exceptional rainfall
- Heavy (top 10%) rainfall expected over a few isolated regions in south-western Ethiopia and southern Sudan.