Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
14 - 21 April 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over southern and part of western Tanzania, central areas of Burundi and isolated areas in Kenya and Ethiopia.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over most parts of South Sudan, Ethiopia, central to southern Somalia, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, and central to northern Tanzania.
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over southern coastal Tanzania and isolated places in northern Kenya.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over isolated areas in Ethiopia and Kenya.
Mean temperatures
- Elevated temperatures exceeding 32℃ expected over most parts of South Sudan, southern to south-eastern regions of Sudan, western Eritrea, and Afar region of Ethiopia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected most of the highlands across the GHA as well as over western Rwanda and Burundi.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress within the ‘Danger’ category expected over parts of eastern South Sudan and ‘extreme caution’ category expected over western parts of South Sudan, eastern parts of Kenya and Tanzania, southern to central Somalia, coastal regions of Eritrea and southern to eastern regions of Sudan.
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over parts of coastal Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, and north-western, southern to eastern Tanzania.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of central to northern Tanzania, South Sudan, Kenya, central to southern and north-western Somalia, southern Uganda, Sudan, and Ethiopia.
Weekly Forecasts
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Temperature forecast (Anomalies)
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures forecasted over most parts of Sudan, central to northern parts of Somalia, most parts of Ethiopia, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over northern Sudan, …
Heavy rainfall
Exceptional rainfall
- Heavy to very heavy rainfall (top 10%-5%) rainfall expected over north-eastern and central parts of Kenya, isolated areas over parts of south-eastern, western and northern Ethiopia, southern Somalia and isolated areas in southern …
Rainfall forecast
- Moderate rainfall (50 –200 mm) expected over central, western and eastern parts of the country.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over northern and southern parts of the country.
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over western and central to northern South Sudan, central to north-eastern Kenya, southern Somalia, western and south-eastern Ethiopia, parts of Burundi, and southern Tanzania.
Temperature forecast
Mean temperatures
- Hot temperatures (above 32℃) expected over north-eastern parts of South Sudan, southern and south-eastern Sudan and isolated areas in western and northern parts of Ethiopia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20 - 32℃) expected …
Rainfall forecast
- Moderate rainfall (50 –200 mm) expected over isolated areas in southern parts of the country.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over central to southern parts of the country.
- Dry conditions expected in northern …