Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
14 - 21 April 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over southern and part of western Tanzania, central areas of Burundi and isolated areas in Kenya and Ethiopia.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over most parts of South Sudan, Ethiopia, central to southern Somalia, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, and central to northern Tanzania.
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over southern coastal Tanzania and isolated places in northern Kenya.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over isolated areas in Ethiopia and Kenya.
Mean temperatures
- Elevated temperatures exceeding 32℃ expected over most parts of South Sudan, southern to south-eastern regions of Sudan, western Eritrea, and Afar region of Ethiopia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected most of the highlands across the GHA as well as over western Rwanda and Burundi.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress within the ‘Danger’ category expected over parts of eastern South Sudan and ‘extreme caution’ category expected over western parts of South Sudan, eastern parts of Kenya and Tanzania, southern to central Somalia, coastal regions of Eritrea and southern to eastern regions of Sudan.
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over parts of coastal Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, and north-western, southern to eastern Tanzania.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of central to northern Tanzania, South Sudan, Kenya, central to southern and north-western Somalia, southern Uganda, Sudan, and Ethiopia.
Weekly Forecasts
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Heavy rainfall
Exceptional rainfall
- Heavy to very heavy rainfall (top 10%-5%) rainfall expected over north-eastern and south-western parts of Ethiopia, parts of eastern Kenya, as well as southern and eastern Tanzania.
Temperature forecast (Anomalies)
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures forecast over most parts of Sudan, northern South Sudan, central parts of Somalia, eastern and northern Ethiopia, parts of central and southern Tanzania.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over …
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over south-western, central to northern parts of Ethiopia, most of eastern parts of Kenya, western Uganda, Tanzania, and Burundi.
Rainfall forecast
- Moderate rainfall expected over isolated areas in the north-western and southern parts of the country.
- Light rainfall predicted over parts of southern, central and northern Somalia.
- Dry conditions expected in central parts of the country.
Temperature forecast
Mean temperatures
- Hot temperatures (above 32℃) expected over north-eastern parts of South Sudan.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20 - 32℃) expected over Sudan, southern and western South Sudan, eastern and southern Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, …
Rainfall forecast
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (more than 200mm) expected over southern parts of Tanzania.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over south-western to eastern Ethiopia, southern, central to north-eastern Kenya, western Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda, and most parts of …