Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
14 - 21 April 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over southern and part of western Tanzania, central areas of Burundi and isolated areas in Kenya and Ethiopia.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over most parts of South Sudan, Ethiopia, central to southern Somalia, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, and central to northern Tanzania.
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over southern coastal Tanzania and isolated places in northern Kenya.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over isolated areas in Ethiopia and Kenya.
Mean temperatures
- Elevated temperatures exceeding 32℃ expected over most parts of South Sudan, southern to south-eastern regions of Sudan, western Eritrea, and Afar region of Ethiopia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected most of the highlands across the GHA as well as over western Rwanda and Burundi.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress within the ‘Danger’ category expected over parts of eastern South Sudan and ‘extreme caution’ category expected over western parts of South Sudan, eastern parts of Kenya and Tanzania, southern to central Somalia, coastal regions of Eritrea and southern to eastern regions of Sudan.
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over parts of coastal Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, and north-western, southern to eastern Tanzania.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of central to northern Tanzania, South Sudan, Kenya, central to southern and north-western Somalia, southern Uganda, Sudan, and Ethiopia.
Weekly Forecasts
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Rainfall forecast
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200 mm) is expected over Rwanda, Burundi, western to southern Tanzania, south-western Uganda, and central Ethiopia.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) is expected over central Ethiopia, southern South Sudan, Djibouti, …
Rainfall forecast
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over Rwanda, Burundi, and western to southern Tanzania.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over central Ethiopia, southern Uganda, central to southern South Sudan, northern and central Tanzania, …
Temperature forecast (Anomalies)
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected in most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA).
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected in coastal parts of Kenya and Somalia.
Rainfall forecast
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over central to southern parts of the country.
- Dry conditions expected in northern and eastern parts of the country.
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- Drier than usual conditions expected over most parts of Tanzania.
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over parts of southern Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, south-western South Sudan and western Uganda.
Heavy rainfall
Exceptional rainfall
- Heavy (top 10%) rainfall expected over isolated areas of southern Tanzania.