Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
21 - 28 July 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over south-western parts of Sudan, western to northern parts of Ethiopia, northern Uganda and central to western areas in South Sudan.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over southern regions of Sudan, western Eritrea, central to eastern Uganda and western regions of Kenya.
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over parts western to eastern Sudan, western to northern parts of Ethiopia, western parts of Eritrea, isolated areas in central, western and southern South Sudan.
Floods update
- Flooding incidences expected over some parts of western to eastern Sudan, western to northern parts of Ethiopia, with pocket areas in western Eritrea, some areas in central, western and southern South Sudan.
- Communities in high-risk areas are advised to exercise caution during this period.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over a few isolated regions across the GHA.
Mean temperatures
- Elevated temperatures exceeding 32°C expected over Djibouti, central to eastern parts of Sudan, coastal parts of Eritrea, northern coastal regions of Somalia, and north-eastern parts of Ethiopia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over Rwanda, Burundi, central to western regions of Kenya, central to southern Tanzania and central to northern parts of Ethiopia.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress within the ‘Extreme Caution’ category expected over most parts of South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, central to northern Somalia and north-eastern regions of Ethiopia. Elevated heat stress within the ‘Danger’ category expected over parts of the Afar region in Ethiopia extending into parts of central Eritrea, isolated areas along the coastline of Eritrea and a few pockets over northern Sudan.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (greater than 200 mm) expected over western to northern parts of Ethiopia and isolated areas in south-western Sudan and northern South Sudan.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200 mm) expected over parts of southern Sudan, most parts of South Sudan, northern parts of Uganda, western regions of Kenya, western Eritrea and western to northern parts of Ethiopia.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over eastern and southern Tanzania, southern Kenya, southern Somalia, central regions of Sudan, and some parts of eastern Ethiopia.
Weekly Forecasts
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Heavy rainfall
Exceptional rainfall
- Heavy to very heavy rainfall (top 10%-5%) rainfall expected over central to northern Somalia, central and northern to eastern Ethiopia, isolated areas in western Kenya, and Rwanda.
Rainfall forecast
- Moderate rainfall (50 –200 mm) expected over central to northern and coastal parts of the country.
- Light rainfall ((50 –200 mm)) predicted over central north-eastern and southern parts of Somalia.
Rainfall forecast
Total rainfall
- Heavy Rainfall (greater than 200mm) expected over isolated parts of central Kenya, western South Sudan and central Ethiopia.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over parts of Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda, north-western Tanzania, western and north-western …
Rainfall forecast
- Heavy Rainfall (greater than 200 mm) expected over isolated areas in central, western and southern parts of the country.
- Moderate rainfall (50 –200 mm) expected over most parts of the country.
- Light rainfall (less than …
Rainfall forecast
- Moderate rainfall (50 –200 mm) expected over northern and central to southern parts of the country.
- Light rainfall (50 –200 mm) predicted over central to north-eastern parts of Somalia.
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, central to southern parts of Sudan, northern and central Somalia, most parts of Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and western Kenya.
- Drier than usual conditions expected …