Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
14 - 21 April 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over southern and part of western Tanzania, central areas of Burundi and isolated areas in Kenya and Ethiopia.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over most parts of South Sudan, Ethiopia, central to southern Somalia, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, and central to northern Tanzania.
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over southern coastal Tanzania and isolated places in northern Kenya.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over isolated areas in Ethiopia and Kenya.
Mean temperatures
- Elevated temperatures exceeding 32℃ expected over most parts of South Sudan, southern to south-eastern regions of Sudan, western Eritrea, and Afar region of Ethiopia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected most of the highlands across the GHA as well as over western Rwanda and Burundi.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress within the ‘Danger’ category expected over parts of eastern South Sudan and ‘extreme caution’ category expected over western parts of South Sudan, eastern parts of Kenya and Tanzania, southern to central Somalia, coastal regions of Eritrea and southern to eastern regions of Sudan.
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over parts of coastal Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, and north-western, southern to eastern Tanzania.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of central to northern Tanzania, South Sudan, Kenya, central to southern and north-western Somalia, southern Uganda, Sudan, and Ethiopia.
Weekly Forecasts
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Heavy rainfall
Exceptional rainfall
- Heavy to very heavy (top 10-5%) rainfall is expected in several parts of the region including central to southern Somalia, south-eastern and southern Ethiopia, most parts of central to northern Kenya, south-western Uganda, …
Rainfall forecast
- Moderate rainfall (50-200 mm) expected over the central to southern parts of the country.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over the northern and central parts of the country.
Temperature forecast
Mean temperatures
- Moderate temperatures between 20 - 32 ℃ expected over southern and eastern parts of Sudan, Djibouti, most parts of Eritrea, South Sudan, central to northern Uganda, northern and eastern Kenya, and most parts …
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over southern Somalia, eastern Kenya, western Uganda, Rwanda, and parts of central Tanzania.
- Drier than usual conditions forecasted over western and southern parts of Kenya, Burundi, and most …
Rainfall forecast
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over eastern Kenya, southern Somalia, central to western Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, and south-western Uganda.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over coastal Sudan, parts of central to southern …
Rainfall forecast
- Moderate rainfall (50-200 mm) expected over southern parts of the country.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of the country.