Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
26 May - 02 June 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of Ethiopia, northern Somalia, south-western parts of South Sudan, southern Tanzania, central regions of Kenya and Somalia-Kenya coastal border.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over parts of Somalia, southern Sudan, South Sudan and Uganda.
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over the western parts and north-eastern parts of Ethiopia extending to northern parts of Somalia and some parts of South Sudan.
Floods Update
- Most of the places in western parts and north-eastern parts of Ethiopia, and northern parts of Somalia and some parts of South Sudan are likely to experience flooding incidences in the coming week. During this period, communities in high-risk areas are encouraged to be cautious.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over parts of northern Sudan and other isolated regions across the GHA.
Mean temperatures
- Elevated temperatures exceeding 32°C expected over southern parts of Sudan, Djibouti and north-eastern parts of Ethiopia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over Rwanda, Burundi, central to western regions of Kenya, Tanzania and most of the highlands across the GHA.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress within the ‘Extreme Caution’ category expected over most parts of South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, eastern and northern Kenya, central to southern Somalia and north-eastern regions of Ethiopia.
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over western parts of South Sudan, some parts of northern Uganda, western and eastern parts of Ethiopia, isolated areas in northern and southern Somalia, and southern parts of Tanzania.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of central to eastern Tanzania, western Kenya, Somalia, southern Ethiopia and some parts of south-eastern Ethiopia.
Weekly Forecasts
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Rainfall forecast
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over northern Somalia.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over central to southern Somalia.
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over most parts of southern Sudan, northern Ethiopia, north-western Eritrea, and northern South Sudan.
- Drier than usual conditions predicted over parts of eastern Uganda, south-eastern South Sudan, southern …
Heavy rainfall
Exceptional rainfall
- Heavy to very heavy (top 10-5%) rainfall expected over parts of northern Somalia, and south-eastern to western Ethiopia.
Temperature forecast
- Moderate temperatures between 20 - 32 ℃ expected most parts of the country with highest temperatures over the north-western coastal and central regions.
Temperature forecast
- Moderate temperatures between 20 - 32 ℃ expected over the country.
Temperature forecast (Anomalies)
Temperature anomalies
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over parts of northern and southern Somalia, north-western and eastern Ethiopia, southern Sudan, western South Sudan, Uganda, Rwanda, and western Kenya.
- Drier than usual conditions predicted over parts …