Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
17 - 24 February 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of Rwanda, Burundi, northern, eastern and southern Tanzania, south-western Kenya, central to western Uganda and southern parts of South Sudan.
- Less than usual rainfall expected in parts of western Tanzania.
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over eastern parts of Rwanda and Burundi, and parts of northern and southern Tanzania.
- Most of the eastern parts of Rwanda and Burundi, as well as northern and southern Tanzania, are likely to experience flooding incidences in the coming week. During this period, communities in high-risk areas are encouraged to be cautious.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over parts of south-western Tanzania, parts of western Kenya and other isolated regions across the GHA.
Mean temperatures
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, southern and northern Ethiopia, Djibouti, and Eritrea.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over parts of north-western Sudan, central Ethiopia, central to western Kenya, northern Somalia, and western regions of Rwanda and Burundi.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress in “Extreme Caution” category expected over eastern Tanzania, eastern South Sudan and eastern Kenya into southern Somalia.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (>200mm) expected over parts of southern Tanzania.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of Burundi, Rwanda, Tanzania and south-western parts of Kenya.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of Uganda and southern parts of South Sudan.
Weekly Forecasts
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Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall Anomalies
- More than normal rainfall expected over southern Sudan, South Sudan, western and southern Ethiopia, Somalia, northern Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, northern Tanzania, and few areas in western Kenya.
- Less than normal rainfall expected over …
Rainfall forecast
Total Rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (more than 100 mm) expected over central Somalia, few areas in south-western Ethiopia, and south-western Kenya.
- Moderate rainfall (50-100 mm) expected over southern areas of Ethiopia, South Sudan, isolated areas in …
Heavy rainfall
Exceptional Rainfall
- Heavy to very heavy (top 10-5%) rainfall expected over cross border areas of Ethiopia, South Sudan, Kenya,
Somalia, and isolated areas in western Kenya, northern Tanzania and north-eastern Uganda .
Heavy rainfall
Exceptional Rainfall
- Heavy to very heavy (top 10-5%) rainfall expected over cross-border areas of Ethiopia and Somalia, and isolated areas in southern Kenya.
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall Anomalies
- More than normal rainfall expected over southern Sudan, northern South Sudan, western and southern Ethiopia, central Somalia, Rwanda, few areas in southern Kenya, and northern Tanzania.
- Less than normal rainfall expected over most …
Temperature forecast (Anomalies)
Temperature Anomalies
- Warmer than normal temperatures expected in most parts of Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, northern and southern parts of Somalia, Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, much of Ethiopia, southern Uganda, and Tanzania.
- Cooler than normal temperatures expected …