Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
06 - 13 May 2025
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of Rwanda, Burundi, southern and eastern Uganda, western and northern Kenya, southern Ethiopia, northern Somalia, and norther parts of Tanzania.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over most parts of South Sudan, southern parts of Somalia and eastern parts of Kenya.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, southern Kenya, southern and northern Somalia, northern Ethiopia, Djibouti, Eritrea, western South Sudan, and eastern and southern parts of Sudan.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over parts of eastern South Sudan, north-western Kenya and central Sudan.
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile (the highest 10% on record)expected over parts of western and northern Kenya, southern Ethiopia and central to northern Somalia.
- There is a likelihood of isolated flash flood incidents over parts of northern Kenya, southern Ethiopia and central to northern Somalia.
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (> 32℃) expected in parts of southern and eastern Sudan, Afar region in Ethiopia and central Eritrea.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over most parts of Burundi, Rwanda, south-western Uganda, central to western Kenya, central and southern Tanzania and central Ethiopia.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress levels expected in most parts of South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, with the ‘Danger’ category expected over parts of western Sudan and Afar region in Ethiopia as from Friday 9th.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (> 200mm) expected in parts of central to western Kenya.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected in most parts of southern Ethiopia, central to northern Somalia, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, western and northern Kenya, and parts of northern and coastal Tanzania.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of South Sudan, central to southern Tanzania and parts of eastern Kenya, and northern Ethiopia.
Weekly Forecasts
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Showing 2002 results
Temperature forecast
Temperature Forecast 27 April - 04 May
- Warm temperatures above 32℃ are expected in southern Sudan and north-eastern Ethiopia.
- Moderate temperatures in the range of 20 - 32 ℃ are expected in central and northern …
Heavy rainfall
Rainfall Forecast 27 April - 04 May
Headline: Extremely heavy rainfall is expected in parts of north-eastern Kenya (Mandera County), and southern and eastern Ethiopia (Gode, Dire Dawa, Afar, and Wollo). Stakeholders are advised to …
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
Rainfall Forecast 27 April - 04 May
Headline: Extremely heavy rainfall is expected in parts of north-eastern Kenya (Mandera County), and southern and eastern Ethiopia (Gode, Dire Dawa, Afar, and Wollo). Stakeholders are advised to …
Temperature forecast
Temperature Forecast
- Warm temperatures above 32℃ are expected in northern and eastern South Sudan; parts of central, southern and eastern Sudan; parts of western and central Eritrea; and north-eastern Ethiopia.
- Moderate temperatures between 20 - …
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
Rainfall Forecast
Headline: North-eastern Somalia continues to be dry, indicating risk for crops and water supply. Heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected in north-eastern Kenya, southern Ethiopia and south-western Somalia.
- Heavy to very heavy …