Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
06 - 13 May 2025
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of Rwanda, Burundi, southern and eastern Uganda, western and northern Kenya, southern Ethiopia, northern Somalia, and norther parts of Tanzania.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over most parts of South Sudan, southern parts of Somalia and eastern parts of Kenya.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, southern Kenya, southern and northern Somalia, northern Ethiopia, Djibouti, Eritrea, western South Sudan, and eastern and southern parts of Sudan.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over parts of eastern South Sudan, north-western Kenya and central Sudan.
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile (the highest 10% on record)expected over parts of western and northern Kenya, southern Ethiopia and central to northern Somalia.
- There is a likelihood of isolated flash flood incidents over parts of northern Kenya, southern Ethiopia and central to northern Somalia.
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (> 32℃) expected in parts of southern and eastern Sudan, Afar region in Ethiopia and central Eritrea.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over most parts of Burundi, Rwanda, south-western Uganda, central to western Kenya, central and southern Tanzania and central Ethiopia.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress levels expected in most parts of South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, with the ‘Danger’ category expected over parts of western Sudan and Afar region in Ethiopia as from Friday 9th.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (> 200mm) expected in parts of central to western Kenya.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected in most parts of southern Ethiopia, central to northern Somalia, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, western and northern Kenya, and parts of northern and coastal Tanzania.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of South Sudan, central to southern Tanzania and parts of eastern Kenya, and northern Ethiopia.
Weekly Forecasts
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Heavy rainfall
Rainfall Forecast
Headline: North-eastern Somalia continues to be dry, indicating risk for crops and water supply. Heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected in north-eastern Kenya, southern Ethiopia and south-western Somalia.
- Heavy to very heavy …
