Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
28 October - 04 November 2025
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda, southern regions of South Sudan and Ethiopia, northern and western Kenya, and south-western Ethiopia.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over most parts of Somalia, eastern Kenya and central Tanzania.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over parts of northern Uganda, south-eastern South Sudan, south-western Ethiopia and north-western Kenya.
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over most parts of Rwanda and cross-border regions of southern South Sudan, eastern Uganda, western and northern Kenya and southern Ethiopia.
- There is a likelihood of Flooding incidences over the flood prone areas in south-eastern South Sudan, north-eastern Uganda, and most parts of Rwanda.
Mean temperatures
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over western regions of Kenya, Burundi and Rwanda, and parts of central Ethiopia.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress levels expected expected in parts of eastern Kenya, southern Somalia, south-eastern Tanzania, central and eastern South Sudan, south-eastern Sudan, and coastal regions of Eritrea.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (> 200mm) expected over parts of western Kenya, eastern Uganda, southern Ethiopia and western Rwanda.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of north-western Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda, western and northern Kenya, and southern regions of South Sudan and Ethiopia.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over southern Somalia, eastern Kenya, central to eastern Tanzania, central South Sudan, central and south-eastern Ethiopia and parts of central to north-western Eritrea.
Weekly Forecasts
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Heat Stress
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress levels expected expected in northern regions of South Sudan and Afar region in Ethiopia.
Temperature forecast
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (>32℃) expected in Afar region of Ethiopia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, Tanzania, eastern and northern Kenya, Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea and eastern Ethiopia.
- Mild temperature …
Heavy rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 95th percentile (the highest 5% on record) expected over northern Somalia, parts of Rwanda, southern Ethiopia and parts of Uganda.
Rainfall forecast
- Heavy rainfall expected over isolated areas in northern parts of Somalia.
- Moderate rainfall expected over northern and central parts of Somalia.
- Light rainfall expected over central to southern areas of the country.
Floods update
- There is a likelihood of Flooding incidences over the flood prone areas in northern Somalia, central parts of southern Ethiopia, western Rwanda, isolated areas in western South Sudan, and pockets of central Kenya.
Temperature forecast
- Moderate temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of Somalia.