Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
10 - 17 September 2025
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of South Sudan, Rwanda, western and northern Uganda, central to northern Ethiopia and western Eritrea.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over a few regions in southern Sudan, northern Somalia and southern Ethiopia.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA
- Cooler than average temperatures expected over eastern regions of South Sudan.
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile (the highest 10% on record) expected over northern parts of South Sudan as well as north-western Ethiopia.
- There is a likelihood of Flooding incidences over the flood prone areas in central and north-eastern South Sudan, pockets in central-eastern Sudan, and north-western parts of Ethiopia.
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (>32℃) expected in central to northern Sudan, Afar region in Ethiopia, and parts of the coastal regions along the Red Sea.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of South Sudan, Uganda, Tanzania, Somalia, south-eastern Ethiopia, eastern and northern Kenya, and eastern and western regions of Tanzania.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over central Ethiopia, central to south-western Kenya and parts of central Tanzania.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress levels expected in parts of the Red Sea coast, Afar region in Ethiopia, and most parts of Sudan.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (above 200mm) expected over northern regions of South Sudan and Ethiopia.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected in most parts of Uganda, South Sudan, central to western Ethiopia and southern Sudan.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected in parts of central Sudan, coastal regions along the Red Sea, north-eastern Ethiopia, Rwanda and coastal regions of Kenya and Tanzania.
Weekly Forecasts
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Heat Stress
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress levels expected in most parts of Sudan, northern regions of South Sudan, Afar region in Ethiopia, Djibouti and coastal regions of Eritrea and northern Somalia.
Temperature forecast
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (>32℃) expected in central to northern Sudan, Afar region in Ethiopia, and coastal regions along the Red Sea.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of South Sudan, Uganda, …
Rainfall forecast
- Light rainfall expected over southern and northern regions of Somalia.
Rainfall forecast
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (above 200mm) expected over parts of western regions of both Ethiopia and South Sudan.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected in most parts of central to northern Uganda, central to western South Sudan, …
Temperature forecast (Anomalies)
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over southern regions of Sudan, western parts of South Sudan, northern Uganda, western Kenya and central to western Ethiopia.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over a few regions …