Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
17 - 24 June 2025
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over central to western Kenya, much of Uganda, eastern South Sudan, western to south-western Ethiopia, and isolated areas in northern and southern Somalia, and south-western Sudan.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over southern Sudan, western Eritrea, central to northern Ethiopia, central to western South Sudan, and part of south-eastern Uganda.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than normal temperatures expected over northern Sudan.
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile (the highest 10% on record)expected over central to western Kenya, north-eastern Uganda, parts of eastern South Sudan, and western Ethiopia.
- There is a likelihood of Flooding incidences over the flood prone areas in central-western Kenya, and small pockets of eastern South Sudan and western Ethiopia.
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (> 32℃) expected in parts of south-eastern Sudan, Afar region in Ethiopia, Djibouti, northern coastal Somalia, and coastal regions of Eritrea.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts South Sudan, Sudan, central to northern Uganda, western and eastern Tanzania, eastern and northern Kenya, south-eastern Ethiopia, and most parts of Somalia.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over Rwanda, Burundi, southern Uganda, central to southern Tanzania, central to western Kenya, and central to western Ethiopia.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress levels expected in parts of southeastern Sudan, Afar region in Ethiopia, Djibouti, coastal Eritrea and parts of north-western coast of Somalia.
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected in western Ethiopia, South Sudan, southern areas of Sudan, much of Uganda, and western Kenya.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over southern parts of Uganda, coastal and north-western Kenya, southern and northern Somalia, central to eastern Ethiopia, and central Sudan.
Weekly Forecasts
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Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over central to western South Sudan, western parts of Ethiopia, and parts of southern Sudan.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over most parts of Uganda and parts of …
Temperature forecast
- Moderate temperatures (20-32 ℃) expected over most parts of Somalia, with temperatures exceeding 32 ℃ over parts of north-western coastal regions.
Temperature forecast (Anomalies)
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
Rainfall forecast
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall ( greater than 200mm) expected in parts of north-western South Sudan.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected in most parts of South Sudan, southern areas of Sudan, and western parts of both Kenya …
Heat Stress
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress levels expected in parts of southeastern Sudan, Afar region in Ethiopia, parts of north-western coast of Somalia, and most parts of Djibouti and Eritrea.
Heavy rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile (the highest 10% on record)expected over few areas in western Ethiopia and South Sudan.