Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
24 June - 01 July 2025
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over L. Victoria Basin in Kenya, northern Uganda, several places in central and western South Sudan, western Ethiopia, and part of North Darfur.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over southern Sudan, western Eritrea, central to northern Ethiopia, parts of central and eastern South Sudan, and parts of Uganda.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile (the highest 10% on record)expected over western Ethiopia and isolated areas in South Sudan, Sudan and western Eritrea.
- There is a likelihood of Flooding incidences over the flood prone areas in pockets of western Ethiopia.
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (> 32℃) expected in parts of central to eastern Sudan, Afar region in Ethiopia, Djibouti, northern coastal Somalia, and northern coastal and southern regions of Eritrea.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts Sudan, South Sudan, central to northern Uganda, north-western and eastern Tanzania, eastern and northern Kenya, south-eastern Ethiopia, and most parts of Somalia.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over Rwanda, Burundi, southern Uganda, central to southern Tanzania, central to south-western Kenya, and central to western Ethiopia.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress levels expected in parts of south-eastern Sudan, northern South Sudan, Afar region in Ethiopia, Djibouti, coastal Eritrea, and parts of north-western coast of Somalia.
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected in western Ethiopia, South Sudan, southern areas of Sudan, northern Uganda, and around the Lake Victoria Basin in Kenya.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over central to southern parts of Uganda, coastal and central to western Kenya, southern coastal Somalia, central Ethiopia, south-eastern South Sudan, central Sudan, and western Eritrea.
Weekly Forecasts
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Rainfall forecast
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected in western Ethiopia, South Sudan, southern areas of Sudan, much of Uganda, and western Kenya.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over southern parts of Uganda, coastal and …
Rainfall forecast
- Light to moderate rainfall is expected over southern and northern regions.
Heat Stress
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress levels expected in parts of southeastern Sudan, Afar region in Ethiopia, Djibouti, coastal Eritrea and parts of north-western coast of Somalia.
Heavy rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile (the highest 10% on record)expected over central to western Kenya, north-eastern Uganda, parts of eastern South Sudan, and western Ethiopia.
Floods update
- There is a likelihood of Flooding incidences over the flood prone areas in central-western Kenya, and small pockets of eastern South Sudan and western Ethiopia.
Temperature forecast
- Moderate temperatures (20-32 ℃) expected over most parts of Somalia, with temperatures exceeding 32 ℃ over parts of north-western coastal regions.