Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
11 - 18 February 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and central to northern regions of Tanzania.
- Less than usual rainfall expected parts of western Tanzania.
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over parts of central to northern Tanzania.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA, with parts of Sudan, Eritrea, north-western Ethiopia, and northern and western South Sudan being at least 2 degrees C warmer than the average.
Mean temperatures
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Somalia, South Sudan, Djibouti, Eritrea and central to southern regions of Sudan.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over parts of north-western Sudan, central Ethiopia, central to western Kenya, northern Somalia, and western regions of Rwanda and Burundi.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress in “Extreme Caution” category over eastern Tanzania, eastern South Sudan and eastern Kenya into southern Somalia.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (>200mm) expected over isolated areas of southern Tanzania.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of Burundi, Rwanda and Tanzania.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over central to northern Uganda, southern South Sudan, south-western Ethiopia, south-western Kenya, and most parts of coastal regions of Somalia.
Weekly Forecasts
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Heavy rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile (the highest 10% on record) expected over northern parts of South Sudan as well as north-western Ethiopia.
Temperature forecast (Anomalies)
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA
- Cooler than average temperatures expected over eastern regions of South Sudan.
Heat Stress
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress levels expected in parts of the Red Sea coast, Afar region in Ethiopia, and most parts of Sudan.
Temperature forecast
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (>32℃) expected in central to northern Sudan, Afar region in Ethiopia, and parts of the coastal regions along the Red Sea.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of …
Temperature forecast
- Moderate temperatures (20-32℃)expected over most parts of Somalia, with temperatures exceeding 32 ℃ over parts of north-western coastal regions.
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of South Sudan, Rwanda, western and northern Uganda, central to northern Ethiopia and western Eritrea.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over a few regions in …