Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
06 - 13 May 2025
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of Rwanda, Burundi, southern and eastern Uganda, western and northern Kenya, southern Ethiopia, northern Somalia, and norther parts of Tanzania.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over most parts of South Sudan, southern parts of Somalia and eastern parts of Kenya.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, southern Kenya, southern and northern Somalia, northern Ethiopia, Djibouti, Eritrea, western South Sudan, and eastern and southern parts of Sudan.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over parts of eastern South Sudan, north-western Kenya and central Sudan.
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile (the highest 10% on record)expected over parts of western and northern Kenya, southern Ethiopia and central to northern Somalia.
- There is a likelihood of isolated flash flood incidents over parts of northern Kenya, southern Ethiopia and central to northern Somalia.
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (> 32℃) expected in parts of southern and eastern Sudan, Afar region in Ethiopia and central Eritrea.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over most parts of Burundi, Rwanda, south-western Uganda, central to western Kenya, central and southern Tanzania and central Ethiopia.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress levels expected in most parts of South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, with the ‘Danger’ category expected over parts of western Sudan and Afar region in Ethiopia as from Friday 9th.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (> 200mm) expected in parts of central to western Kenya.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected in most parts of southern Ethiopia, central to northern Somalia, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, western and northern Kenya, and parts of northern and coastal Tanzania.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of South Sudan, central to southern Tanzania and parts of eastern Kenya, and northern Ethiopia.
Weekly Forecasts
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Temperature forecast
Temperature Forecast
- Warm temperatures above 28℃ are expected in eastern South Sudan, northern and eastern Kenya, south-eastern Somalia, and a few places in south-eastern Ethiopia.
- Moderate temperatures in the range of 20 - 28℃ are …
Heavy rainfall
Rainfall Forecast
Headline: Heavy to very heavy rain is expected in southern Tanzania. While lighter rain is expected over western Kenya, Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda, and central Ethiopia.
- Heavy to very heavy rainfall of 100 - …
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Moderate rainfall amounts, 50-100 mm is expected over much of Tanzania and Burundi and a few areas in western Kenya.
- Light rainfall amounts of up to 30 mm are expected in Rwanda, parts of central …