Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
26 May - 02 June 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of Ethiopia, northern Somalia, south-western parts of South Sudan, southern Tanzania, central regions of Kenya and Somalia-Kenya coastal border.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over parts of Somalia, southern Sudan, South Sudan and Uganda.
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over the western parts and north-eastern parts of Ethiopia extending to northern parts of Somalia and some parts of South Sudan.
Floods Update
- Most of the places in western parts and north-eastern parts of Ethiopia, and northern parts of Somalia and some parts of South Sudan are likely to experience flooding incidences in the coming week. During this period, communities in high-risk areas are encouraged to be cautious.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over parts of northern Sudan and other isolated regions across the GHA.
Mean temperatures
- Elevated temperatures exceeding 32°C expected over southern parts of Sudan, Djibouti and north-eastern parts of Ethiopia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over Rwanda, Burundi, central to western regions of Kenya, Tanzania and most of the highlands across the GHA.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress within the ‘Extreme Caution’ category expected over most parts of South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, eastern and northern Kenya, central to southern Somalia and north-eastern regions of Ethiopia.
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over western parts of South Sudan, some parts of northern Uganda, western and eastern parts of Ethiopia, isolated areas in northern and southern Somalia, and southern parts of Tanzania.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of central to eastern Tanzania, western Kenya, Somalia, southern Ethiopia and some parts of south-eastern Ethiopia.
Weekly Forecasts
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Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall Anomalies
- More than normal rainfall expected over southern and north-western Tanzania, central to northern Kenya, western South Sudan, parts of Burundi, Rwanda, and part of western Ethiopia.
- Less than normal rainfall expected over central …
Rainfall forecast
Total Rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over Rwanda, Burundi, north-western and southern Tanzania, few regions in central Kenya, and western Ethiopia.
- Light rainfall less than 30 mm expected over much of South Sudan, western and …
Heavy rainfall
Exceptional Rainfall
- Heavy to Very Heavy (top 10-5%) rainfall expected over few areas in north-western and southern Tanzania and central to northern Kenya.
Temperature forecast (Anomalies)
Temperature Anomalies
- Warmer than normal temperatures expected in most parts of Ethiopia, eastern Sudan, north-eastern South Sudan, Djibouti, and Kenya.
- Cooler than normal temperatures expected in most parts of Sudan, south-western South Sudan and a …
Temperature forecast
Mean Temperature
- Hot conditions (above 32 ℃) expected in border regions of eastern South Sudan to western Ethiopia, and north-western Kenya.
- Moderate temperatures (between 20 - 32 ℃) expected over central to southern Sudan, South …