Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
17 - 24 September 2025
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of South Sudan, central to southern Sudan, northern and eastern Uganda, central to western Kenya, central to northern Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, northern Somalia, Rwanda, Burundi, and north-western Tanzania.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over a few regions in western South Sudan, central and south-eastern Ethiopia, central Somalia and western Uganda.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than average temperatures expected over eastern regions of South Sudan, south-eastern Sudan, and western Eritrea.
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile (the highest 10% on record) expected over areas in central to south-eastern Sudan, western Eritrea, northern and eastern Ethiopia, and north-eastern Somalia.
- There is a likelihood of Flooding incidences over the flood prone areas in central-eastern Sudan, and northern and north-eastern parts of Ethiopia.
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (>32℃) expected in central to northern Sudan and Afar region in Ethiopia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, south-eastern Ethiopia, eastern and northern Kenya, eastern Rwanda and Burundi, and most parts of Tanzania.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over central Ethiopia, central to south-western Kenya, western Rwanda and Burundi, and parts of central Tanzania.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress levels expected expected in parts of the Red Sea coast, Afar region in Ethiopia, and most parts of Sudan.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (above 200mm) expected over isolated areas in central and northern Ethiopia as well as south-eastern Sudan.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected in most parts of Uganda, South Sudan, southern Sudan, central, western to northern Ethiopia, western Eritrea, north-eastern Somalia, Lake Victoria Basin in Kenya, Rwanda, and Burundi.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected in parts of central to northern Sudan, southern Eritrea, Djibouti, south-eastern Ethiopia, southern Kenya, and most parts of Somalia and Tanzania.
Weekly Forecasts
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Heavy rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile (the highest 10% on record)expected over parts of north-eastern Kenya and a few regions in southern and northern Tanzania.
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, eastern Kenya, northern South Sudan and southern Sudan.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over parts of central to southern South Sudan, …
Rainfall forecast
- Light to moderate rainfall expected over central to southern regions of Somalia.
Temperature forecast (Anomalies)
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the Eritrea, Djibouti, Tanzania, Ethiopia, Uganda, western Kenya, central and northern Somalia.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over cross border areas of Sudan, South …
Floods update
- The expected heavy rainfall over parts of north-eastern Kenya and some regions in southern and northern Tanzania could trigger isolated flooding. Communities in low-lying areas should stay cautious.
Temperature forecast
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (> 32℃) expected over parts of Sudan and Afar region in Ethiopia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea, northern, western and eastern Ethiopia, Djibouti, …