Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
31 March - 07 April 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most of southern Tanzania, central to southern Ethiopia, western and northern parts of South Sudan into southern parts of Sudan.
- Less than usual rainfall expected most parts of Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, western and northern Tanzania, southern and eastern Kenya, as well as a few regions in south-western Somalia and southern parts of South Sudan.
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over parts of southern Tanzania and isolated areas in central to southern Ethiopia.
- There is a likelihood of Flooding incidences over the flood prone areas over southern and north-eastern Ethiopia and central to north-western Rwanda.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over most highland regions across the GHA.
Mean temperatures
- Elevated temperatures exceeding 32℃ expected over most parts of central to eastern South Sudan and south-eastern parts of Sudan.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over parts of the Ethiopian highlands, central to western Kenya and western regions of both Rwanda and Burundi, and parts of south-western Tanzania.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress in the Danger category expected over the northern regions of South Sudan and south-eastern parts of Sudan, as well as eastern parts of both Tanzania, Kenya and south-western parts of Somalia.
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of southern Tanzania, southern Ethiopia and western regions of South Sudan, Rwanda and Burundi.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of Kenya, South Sudan, eastern Rwanda, parts of Burundi, central to northern Tanzania, southern and northern Somalia, and parts of southern Sudan and western Uganda.
Weekly Forecasts
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Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
Total Rainfall
- Moderate rainfall between 50 - 100 mm is expected in southern Tanzania with a few areas expected to receive up to 200 mm rainfall.
- Light rainfall of less than 30 mm is expected …
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall Anomalies
- Negative rainfall anomalies (depressed rainfall) expected in most parts of Tanzania.
- Positive rainfall anomalies (enhanced rainfall) expected in isolated areas of southern Tanzania and southwestern South Sudan
Temperature forecast
Mean Temperature
- Moderate temperatures between 20 - 32 ℃ are expected in southern Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, Tanzania; eastern and northern Kenya; much of central and southern Somalia, Djibouti; coastal and western Eritrea; and southern …
Temperature forecast (Anomalies)
Temperature Anomalies
- Warmer than average temperatures are expected in most areas of the region except parts of eastern Kenya and central Somalia where near average temperatures are forecasted.
