Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
06 - 13 May 2025
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of Rwanda, Burundi, southern and eastern Uganda, western and northern Kenya, southern Ethiopia, northern Somalia, and norther parts of Tanzania.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over most parts of South Sudan, southern parts of Somalia and eastern parts of Kenya.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, southern Kenya, southern and northern Somalia, northern Ethiopia, Djibouti, Eritrea, western South Sudan, and eastern and southern parts of Sudan.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over parts of eastern South Sudan, north-western Kenya and central Sudan.
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile (the highest 10% on record)expected over parts of western and northern Kenya, southern Ethiopia and central to northern Somalia.
- There is a likelihood of isolated flash flood incidents over parts of northern Kenya, southern Ethiopia and central to northern Somalia.
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (> 32℃) expected in parts of southern and eastern Sudan, Afar region in Ethiopia and central Eritrea.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over most parts of Burundi, Rwanda, south-western Uganda, central to western Kenya, central and southern Tanzania and central Ethiopia.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress levels expected in most parts of South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, with the ‘Danger’ category expected over parts of western Sudan and Afar region in Ethiopia as from Friday 9th.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (> 200mm) expected in parts of central to western Kenya.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected in most parts of southern Ethiopia, central to northern Somalia, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, western and northern Kenya, and parts of northern and coastal Tanzania.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of South Sudan, central to southern Tanzania and parts of eastern Kenya, and northern Ethiopia.
Weekly Forecasts
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Temperature forecast
- High temperatures above 320C are expected over the north-western coastal areas.
- Moderate temperatures between 20 -320C are expected over most parts of the country.
- Low temperatures below 200C expected …
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Heavy rainfall above 200 mm expected in parts of western Ethiopia and isolated areas in north-western South Sudan and western Kenya.
- Moderate rainfall, 50-200 mm expected in southern parts of Sudan, much of South Sudan, …
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Moderate rainfall between 50-200 mm is expected in very few areas in the north-eastern part of the country.
- Light rainfall less than 50 mm is expected over northern and southern parts of the country.
- Dry …
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Heavy rainfall above 200 mm expected over small areas in northern Bahr el Ghazal and western Equatoria state.
- Moderate rainfall between 50 -200 mm expected over much of the country.
- Light rainfall less than 50 …
Heavy rainfall
- Very heavy rainfall (top 5% on record) expected in Bahr el Ghazal and small pockets over the Equatoria states.
- Heavy rainfall (top 10% on record) expected over localized areas of north-western, north-eastern, and south-western parts …
Heavy rainfall
Very heavy rainfall (top 5% on record) is expected in north-eastern parts of the country.
Heavy rainfall (top 10% on record) is expected in north-eastern and north-western parts of the country.