Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
06 - 13 May 2025
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of Rwanda, Burundi, southern and eastern Uganda, western and northern Kenya, southern Ethiopia, northern Somalia, and norther parts of Tanzania.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over most parts of South Sudan, southern parts of Somalia and eastern parts of Kenya.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, southern Kenya, southern and northern Somalia, northern Ethiopia, Djibouti, Eritrea, western South Sudan, and eastern and southern parts of Sudan.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over parts of eastern South Sudan, north-western Kenya and central Sudan.
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile (the highest 10% on record)expected over parts of western and northern Kenya, southern Ethiopia and central to northern Somalia.
- There is a likelihood of isolated flash flood incidents over parts of northern Kenya, southern Ethiopia and central to northern Somalia.
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (> 32℃) expected in parts of southern and eastern Sudan, Afar region in Ethiopia and central Eritrea.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over most parts of Burundi, Rwanda, south-western Uganda, central to western Kenya, central and southern Tanzania and central Ethiopia.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress levels expected in most parts of South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, with the ‘Danger’ category expected over parts of western Sudan and Afar region in Ethiopia as from Friday 9th.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (> 200mm) expected in parts of central to western Kenya.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected in most parts of southern Ethiopia, central to northern Somalia, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, western and northern Kenya, and parts of northern and coastal Tanzania.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of South Sudan, central to southern Tanzania and parts of eastern Kenya, and northern Ethiopia.
Weekly Forecasts
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Temperature forecast
- High daily-mean temperatures above 32oC are expected in northern Sudan, coastal Eritrea, parts of north-eastern Ethiopia, parts of Djibouti and regions in north-western coast of Somalia.
- Moderate daily-mean temperatures between 20-32oC …
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Heavy rainfall above 200 mm expected in a few places in western and central Ethiopia.
- Moderate rainfall between 50-200 mm is expected in south-western Sudan, north-western to south-western South Sudan, western and parts of central …
Heavy rainfall
- Very heavy rainfall (top 5% on record) is expected in parts of north-eastern Somalia, and few places in central Ethiopia.
- Heavy rainfall (top 10% on record) is expected in southern parts of Sudan, and parts …
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Heavy rainfall above 200 mm expected in parts of western Ethiopia, south-western Sudan and north-western South Sudan.
- Moderate rainfall between 50-200 mm expected in western and central Ethiopia, western Eritrea, southern Sudan, much of South …
Temperature forecast
- High daily mean temperatures above 32oC are expected in northern Sudan, coastal Eritrea, parts of north-eastern Ethiopia, parts of Djibouti, and regions in north-western coast of Somalia.
- Moderate daily mean temperatures between 20-32 …
Heavy rainfall
- Very heavy rainfall (top 5% on record) is expected in northern, southern and south-western Sudan; parts of north-western South Sudan; isolated regions of western, northern and eastern Ethiopia; western Eritrea, and northern Somalia.
- Heavy rainfall …