Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
06 - 13 May 2025
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of Rwanda, Burundi, southern and eastern Uganda, western and northern Kenya, southern Ethiopia, northern Somalia, and norther parts of Tanzania.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over most parts of South Sudan, southern parts of Somalia and eastern parts of Kenya.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, southern Kenya, southern and northern Somalia, northern Ethiopia, Djibouti, Eritrea, western South Sudan, and eastern and southern parts of Sudan.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over parts of eastern South Sudan, north-western Kenya and central Sudan.
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile (the highest 10% on record)expected over parts of western and northern Kenya, southern Ethiopia and central to northern Somalia.
- There is a likelihood of isolated flash flood incidents over parts of northern Kenya, southern Ethiopia and central to northern Somalia.
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (> 32℃) expected in parts of southern and eastern Sudan, Afar region in Ethiopia and central Eritrea.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over most parts of Burundi, Rwanda, south-western Uganda, central to western Kenya, central and southern Tanzania and central Ethiopia.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress levels expected in most parts of South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, with the ‘Danger’ category expected over parts of western Sudan and Afar region in Ethiopia as from Friday 9th.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (> 200mm) expected in parts of central to western Kenya.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected in most parts of southern Ethiopia, central to northern Somalia, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, western and northern Kenya, and parts of northern and coastal Tanzania.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of South Sudan, central to southern Tanzania and parts of eastern Kenya, and northern Ethiopia.
Weekly Forecasts
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Heavy rainfall
- Exceptionally heavy rainfall (top 1% on record) is expected in a few areas of north-western Ethiopia.
- Very heavy rainfall (top 5% on record) is expected in north-eastern and western Ethiopia, central and southern parts of …
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Heavy rainfall above 200 mm is expected in most parts of western Ethiopia and north-western South Sudan.
- Moderate rainfall between 50-200 mm is expected in southern Sudan, western and central Ethiopia, western Eritrea, parts of …
Temperature forecast
- High temperatures above 32℃ are expected in northern Sudan, coastal Eritrea, parts of north-eastern Ethiopia, parts of Djibouti, and regions in north-western coast of Somalia.
- Moderate temperature between 20-32℃ are expected over southern Sudan, South …
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Heavy rainfall above 200 mm is expected in most parts of western Ethiopia and isolated regions in central and western Sudan
- Moderate rainfall, 50-200 mm is forecasted over southern Sudan, western and central Ethiopia, western …
Temperature forecast
- High temperatures above 32oC are forecasted in northern Sudan, coastal Eritrea, parts of northeastern Ethiopia, parts of Djibouti and regions in northwestern coast of Somalia.
- Moderate temperature between 20-32oC are expected over southern Sudan, South …
Heavy rainfall
- Exceptionally heavy rainfall (top 1% on record) is expected in isolated areas of western and northwestern Ethiopia
- Very heavy rainfall (top 5% on record) is expected in central & western Sudan, parts of central Eritrea, …