Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
27 May - 03 June 2025
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over western Ethiopia, north-eastern and western South Sudan South-eastern Sudan and isolated areas in western Kenya and southern Tanzania.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over most parts of Somalia, Uganda, southern Ethiopia, and parts of southern and northern South Sudan.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over parts of northern Sudan and other few areas across the GHA.
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile (the highest 10% on record) expected over few areas in western Ethiopia and South Sudan.
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (> 32℃) expected in southern regions of Sudan, coastal Eritrea, north-eastern Ethiopia, Djibouti, and coastal areas of northern Somalia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, north-western and coastal Tanzania, northern and eastern Kenya, Somalia, Eritrea, south-eastern Ethiopia.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over Rwanda, Burundi, parts of central and south-western Tanzania, central to western Kenya, south-western Uganda and the Ethiopian highlands.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress levels expected in Afar region in Ethiopia, southern Sudan and northern coastal Somalia.
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected in most parts of South Sudan, southern areas of Sudan, and western Ethiopia.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of Uganda, Rwanda, western and coastal Kenya, southern and eastern Tanzania, central to southern Somalia, central Ethiopia, western Eritrea, southern areas of Sudan, and south-eastern parts of South Sudan.
Weekly Forecasts
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Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Heavy rainfall above 200 mm expected over small areas in northern Bahr el Ghazal and western Equatoria state.
- Moderate rainfall between 50 -200 mm expected over much of the country.
- Light rainfall less than 50 …
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Heavy rainfall above 200 mm expected in parts of western Ethiopia and isolated areas in north-western South Sudan and western Kenya.
- Moderate rainfall, 50-200 mm expected in southern parts of Sudan, much of South Sudan, …
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Moderate rainfall between 50-200 mm is expected in very few areas in the north-eastern part of the country.
- Light rainfall less than 50 mm is expected over northern and southern parts of the country.
- Dry …
Heavy rainfall
Very heavy rainfall (top 5% on record) is expected in north-eastern parts of the country.
Heavy rainfall (top 10% on record) is expected in north-eastern and north-western parts of the country.
Heavy rainfall
- Very heavy rainfall (top 5% on record) expected in Bahr el Ghazal and small pockets over the Equatoria states.
- Heavy rainfall (top 10% on record) expected over localized areas of north-western, north-eastern, and south-western parts …
Temperature forecast
- High temperatures above 32o C are expected in northern and central Sudan, parts of north-eastern Ethiopia, Djibouti, and regions in north-western coast of Somalia.
- Moderate temperatures between 20-32o C are expected over southern, …