Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
28 July - 04 August 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall Anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over western to northern parts of Ethiopia, central to north-western Uganda, isolated parts of south-western Sudan, and north-eastern and south-eastern parts of South Sudan
- Less than usual rainfall expected over southern regions of Sudan, central to western parts of South Sudan, Eritrea, central-eastern parts of Ethiopia, north-eastern Uganda and western regions of Kenya.
Exceptional Rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over southern parts of Sudan, western to northern parts of Ethiopia, western parts of Eritrea, and isolated areas in north-eastern and southern South Sudan.
Floods
- Flooding incidences expected over some parts of western to eastern Sudan, western to northern parts of Ethiopia, and pocket areas in western Eritrea.
- Communities in high-risk areas are advised to exercise caution during this period.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over a few isolated regions across the GHA.
- Elevated temperatures exceeding 32°C expected over Djibouti, nothern part of Sudan, coastal parts of Eritrea, northern coastal regions of Somalia, and north-eastern parts of Ethiopia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32°C) expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20°C) expected over Rwanda, Burundi, central to western regions of Kenya, central to southern Tanzania and central to northern parts of Ethiopia.
- Elevated heat stress within the ‘Extreme Caution’ category expected over most parts of South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, central to northern Somalia and north-eastern regions of Ethiopia. Elevated heat stress within the ‘Danger’ category expected over parts of the Afar region in Ethiopia extending into parts of central Eritrea, isolated areas along the coastline of Eritrea and a few pockets over northern Sudan.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (greater than 200 mm) expected over western parts of Ethiopia and isolated areas over southwestern Sudan.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200 mm) expected over parts of southern Sudan, most parts of South Sudan, central to northwestern parts of Uganda, western regions of Kenya, western Eritrea and western to northern parts of Ethiopia.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over eastern and southern Tanzania, western and coastal parts of Kenya, southern and northern Somalia, central regions of Sudan, and some parts of eastern Ethiopia.
Weekly Forecasts
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Rainfall forecast
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-100mm) expected in western Burundi and most parts of central to southern Tanzania.
- Light rainfall (less than 30 mm) expected in western South Sudan, south-western Ethiopia, western and southern Uganda, Rwanda, …
Temperature forecast (Anomalies)
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than normal temperatures expected in most of the regions of Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, Eritrea, Djibouti, Ethiopia, northern Somalia, and parts of northern Kenya and northern Tanzania.
- Colder than normal temperatures expected …
Heavy rainfall
Exceptional rainfall
- Heavy to very heavy rainfall (top 10-5%) expected over parts of Tanzania, especially the northern (Arusha, Manyara, and Dodoma) and southern (Mtwara and Lindi) regions, and south-western Kenya (Narok and Kajiado).