Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
27 May - 03 June 2025
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over western Ethiopia, north-eastern and western South Sudan South-eastern Sudan and isolated areas in western Kenya and southern Tanzania.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over most parts of Somalia, Uganda, southern Ethiopia, and parts of southern and northern South Sudan.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over parts of northern Sudan and other few areas across the GHA.
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile (the highest 10% on record) expected over few areas in western Ethiopia and South Sudan.
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (> 32℃) expected in southern regions of Sudan, coastal Eritrea, north-eastern Ethiopia, Djibouti, and coastal areas of northern Somalia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, north-western and coastal Tanzania, northern and eastern Kenya, Somalia, Eritrea, south-eastern Ethiopia.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over Rwanda, Burundi, parts of central and south-western Tanzania, central to western Kenya, south-western Uganda and the Ethiopian highlands.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress levels expected in Afar region in Ethiopia, southern Sudan and northern coastal Somalia.
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected in most parts of South Sudan, southern areas of Sudan, and western Ethiopia.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of Uganda, Rwanda, western and coastal Kenya, southern and eastern Tanzania, central to southern Somalia, central Ethiopia, western Eritrea, southern areas of Sudan, and south-eastern parts of South Sudan.
Weekly Forecasts
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Heavy rainfall
- Very heavy rainfall (top 5% on record) is expected in parts of western Ethiopia, north-eastern Somalia, some pocket areas of north-western South Sudan, northern Uganda, and western Kenya.
- Heavy rainfall (top 10% on record) expected …
Temperature forecast
- Moderate temperatures between 20-280C expected over much of the country.
- Low temperatures below 200C expected over small area in southern part of Eastern Equatoria state.
Temperature forecast
- High daily-mean temperatures above 32oC are expected in northern Sudan, coastal Eritrea, parts of north-eastern Ethiopia, parts of Djibouti and regions in north-western coast of Somalia.
- Moderate daily-mean temperatures between 20-32oC …
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Heavy rainfall above 200 mm expected in a few places in western and central Ethiopia.
- Moderate rainfall between 50-200 mm is expected in south-western Sudan, north-western to south-western South Sudan, western and parts of central …
Heavy rainfall
- Very heavy rainfall (top 5% on record) is expected in parts of north-eastern Somalia, and few places in central Ethiopia.
- Heavy rainfall (top 10% on record) is expected in southern parts of Sudan, and parts …
Temperature forecast
- High daily mean temperatures above 32oC are expected in northern Sudan, coastal Eritrea, parts of north-eastern Ethiopia, parts of Djibouti, and regions in north-western coast of Somalia.
- Moderate daily mean temperatures between 20-32 …