Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
27 May - 03 June 2025
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over western Ethiopia, north-eastern and western South Sudan South-eastern Sudan and isolated areas in western Kenya and southern Tanzania.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over most parts of Somalia, Uganda, southern Ethiopia, and parts of southern and northern South Sudan.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over parts of northern Sudan and other few areas across the GHA.
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile (the highest 10% on record) expected over few areas in western Ethiopia and South Sudan.
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (> 32℃) expected in southern regions of Sudan, coastal Eritrea, north-eastern Ethiopia, Djibouti, and coastal areas of northern Somalia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, north-western and coastal Tanzania, northern and eastern Kenya, Somalia, Eritrea, south-eastern Ethiopia.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over Rwanda, Burundi, parts of central and south-western Tanzania, central to western Kenya, south-western Uganda and the Ethiopian highlands.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress levels expected in Afar region in Ethiopia, southern Sudan and northern coastal Somalia.
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected in most parts of South Sudan, southern areas of Sudan, and western Ethiopia.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of Uganda, Rwanda, western and coastal Kenya, southern and eastern Tanzania, central to southern Somalia, central Ethiopia, western Eritrea, southern areas of Sudan, and south-eastern parts of South Sudan.
Weekly Forecasts
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Temperature forecast
- High temperatures above 32oC are forecasted in northern Sudan, coastal Eritrea, parts of northeastern Ethiopia, parts of Djibouti and regions in northwestern coast of Somalia.
- Moderate temperature between 20-32oC are expected over southern Sudan, South …
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Heavy rainfall above 200 mm is expected in most parts of western Ethiopia and isolated regions in central and western Sudan
- Moderate rainfall, 50-200 mm is forecasted over southern Sudan, western and central Ethiopia, western …
Heavy rainfall
- Exceptionally heavy rainfall is expected in a few areas of northwestern and northeastern Ethiopia (100-200 mm), and over a limited area of eastern Sudan (100-200 mm). Forecast amounts are in the top 1% of rainfall …
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Heavy rainfall above 200 mm is expected in most parts of western Ethiopia, southwestern Sudan and northwestern South Sudan
- Moderate rainfall, 50-200 mm is forecasted in central and western Ethiopia, western Eritrea, southern Sudan, western …
Temperature forecast
- High temperatures above 32oC are expected in northern Sudan, coastal Eritrea, parts of northeastern Ethiopia, parts of Djibouti and regions in northwestern coast of Somalia.
- Moderate temperatures between 20-32oC are forecasted over southern Sudan, South …
Heavy rainfall
The forecast rainfall amounts are ranked as follows:
- Heavy Rainfall: Forecast amounts are in the top 10% of rainfall experienced in this location in the past.
- Very Heavy Rainfall: Forecast amounts are in the …