Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
06 - 13 May 2025
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of Rwanda, Burundi, southern and eastern Uganda, western and northern Kenya, southern Ethiopia, northern Somalia, and norther parts of Tanzania.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over most parts of South Sudan, southern parts of Somalia and eastern parts of Kenya.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, southern Kenya, southern and northern Somalia, northern Ethiopia, Djibouti, Eritrea, western South Sudan, and eastern and southern parts of Sudan.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over parts of eastern South Sudan, north-western Kenya and central Sudan.
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile (the highest 10% on record)expected over parts of western and northern Kenya, southern Ethiopia and central to northern Somalia.
- There is a likelihood of isolated flash flood incidents over parts of northern Kenya, southern Ethiopia and central to northern Somalia.
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (> 32℃) expected in parts of southern and eastern Sudan, Afar region in Ethiopia and central Eritrea.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over most parts of Burundi, Rwanda, south-western Uganda, central to western Kenya, central and southern Tanzania and central Ethiopia.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress levels expected in most parts of South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, with the ‘Danger’ category expected over parts of western Sudan and Afar region in Ethiopia as from Friday 9th.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (> 200mm) expected in parts of central to western Kenya.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected in most parts of southern Ethiopia, central to northern Somalia, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, western and northern Kenya, and parts of northern and coastal Tanzania.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of South Sudan, central to southern Tanzania and parts of eastern Kenya, and northern Ethiopia.
Weekly Forecasts
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Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over coastal Sudan, most parts of South Sudan, most parts of Ethiopia, northern Somalia, central Uganda, and parts of eastern and western Tanzania.
- Less than usual rainfall expected …
Rainfall forecast
- Moderate rainfall expected over northern and central regions of Somalia.
- Light rainfall expected over north-eastern to southern parts of the region regions.
Heat Stress
Heat Stress
- Heat exhaustion is likely to be experienced over parts of Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea, Afar region in Ethiopia, central to southern Somalia, and eastern Kenya.
Rainfall forecast
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (greater than 200mm) expected over isolated areas in central and western Ethiopia.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda, part of western Kenya, western and northern South Sudan, western to …
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over parts of southern Sudan, western to south-eastern Ethiopia, northern Somalia, central to northern Uganda, and northern Rwanda.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over central to eastern Kenya, …
Floods update
Flood 23 - 30 October 2024
- The expected very heavy rainfall over a few places in parts of northern Somalia, south-eastern and western Ethiopia, and isolated areas in southern and northern Uganda is likely to …