Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
11 - 18 February 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and central to northern regions of Tanzania.
- Less than usual rainfall expected parts of western Tanzania.
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over parts of central to northern Tanzania.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA, with parts of Sudan, Eritrea, north-western Ethiopia, and northern and western South Sudan being at least 2 degrees C warmer than the average.
Mean temperatures
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Somalia, South Sudan, Djibouti, Eritrea and central to southern regions of Sudan.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over parts of north-western Sudan, central Ethiopia, central to western Kenya, northern Somalia, and western regions of Rwanda and Burundi.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress in “Extreme Caution” category over eastern Tanzania, eastern South Sudan and eastern Kenya into southern Somalia.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (>200mm) expected over isolated areas of southern Tanzania.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of Burundi, Rwanda and Tanzania.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over central to northern Uganda, southern South Sudan, south-western Ethiopia, south-western Kenya, and most parts of coastal regions of Somalia.
Weekly Forecasts
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Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over central to western Kenya, Uganda, central, western, and northern parts of Ethiopia, eastern South Sudan, several parts of Eritrea, the Darfur area of Sudan, several parts of …
Floods update
- There is a likelihood of Flooding incidences over the flood prone areas in northern and north-eastern Ethiopia, central-eastern and south-western Sudan, central parts of South Sudan, and western Eritrea.
Floods update
- There is a likelihood of Flooding incidences over the flood prone areas in north-eastern Ethiopia, central western Sudan and eastern South Sudan.
Heat Stress
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress levels expected in parts of Afar region in Ethiopia, coastal regions along the Red Sea and most parts of eastern and northern Sudan.
Temperature forecast (Anomalies)
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over cross-border regions of South Sudan, Ethiopia and Sudan, and other isolated regions across the GHA.
Heavy rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile (the highest 10% on record)expected over parts of southern Sudan, eastern South Sudan, northern Uganda, northern and western Ethiopia, and central to western Eritrea.