Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
26 May - 02 June 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of Ethiopia, northern Somalia, south-western parts of South Sudan, southern Tanzania, central regions of Kenya and Somalia-Kenya coastal border.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over parts of Somalia, southern Sudan, South Sudan and Uganda.
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over the western parts and north-eastern parts of Ethiopia extending to northern parts of Somalia and some parts of South Sudan.
Floods Update
- Most of the places in western parts and north-eastern parts of Ethiopia, and northern parts of Somalia and some parts of South Sudan are likely to experience flooding incidences in the coming week. During this period, communities in high-risk areas are encouraged to be cautious.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over parts of northern Sudan and other isolated regions across the GHA.
Mean temperatures
- Elevated temperatures exceeding 32°C expected over southern parts of Sudan, Djibouti and north-eastern parts of Ethiopia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over Rwanda, Burundi, central to western regions of Kenya, Tanzania and most of the highlands across the GHA.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress within the ‘Extreme Caution’ category expected over most parts of South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, eastern and northern Kenya, central to southern Somalia and north-eastern regions of Ethiopia.
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over western parts of South Sudan, some parts of northern Uganda, western and eastern parts of Ethiopia, isolated areas in northern and southern Somalia, and southern parts of Tanzania.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of central to eastern Tanzania, western Kenya, Somalia, southern Ethiopia and some parts of south-eastern Ethiopia.
Weekly Forecasts
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Rainfall forecast
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected in Rwanda, Burundi, western Tanzania, south-western and central Uganda, parts of central and western Kenya, parts of southern South Sudan and southern Ethiopia.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) …
Temperature forecast
Mean temperatures
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, Tanzania, eastern and northern Kenya, Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea, eastern Ethiopia and eastern parts of both Rwanda and Uganda.
- Mild temperature conditions (less …
Heavy rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over northern Somalia, parts of Rwanda, southern Ethiopia and parts of Uganda.
Heat Stress
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress levels expected expected in parts of South Sudan and coastal Somalia.
Heavy rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over most parts of Rwanda and cross-border regions of southern South Sudan, eastern Uganda, western and northern Kenya and southern Ethiopia.
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda, southern regions of South Sudan and Ethiopia, northern and western Kenya, and south-western Ethiopia.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over most …