Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
17 - 24 February 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of Rwanda, Burundi, northern, eastern and southern Tanzania, south-western Kenya, central to western Uganda and southern parts of South Sudan.
- Less than usual rainfall expected in parts of western Tanzania.
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over eastern parts of Rwanda and Burundi, and parts of northern and southern Tanzania.
- Most of the eastern parts of Rwanda and Burundi, as well as northern and southern Tanzania, are likely to experience flooding incidences in the coming week. During this period, communities in high-risk areas are encouraged to be cautious.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over parts of south-western Tanzania, parts of western Kenya and other isolated regions across the GHA.
Mean temperatures
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, southern and northern Ethiopia, Djibouti, and Eritrea.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over parts of north-western Sudan, central Ethiopia, central to western Kenya, northern Somalia, and western regions of Rwanda and Burundi.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress in “Extreme Caution” category expected over eastern Tanzania, eastern South Sudan and eastern Kenya into southern Somalia.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (>200mm) expected over parts of southern Tanzania.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of Burundi, Rwanda, Tanzania and south-western parts of Kenya.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of Uganda and southern parts of South Sudan.
Weekly Forecasts
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Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
Heavy Rainfall Advisory: Kenya, Somalia and Ethiopia
Considering the rainfall events during the past week over some areas in Somalia, Kenya and Ethiopia, heavy rainfall is expected in northern Kenya, south-eastern Ethiopia, and …
Temperature forecast
- On average, warmer conditions above 28℃ are expected over eastern and north-western (Turkana and Marsabit counties) Kenya, isolated regions of central Somalia, south-eastern Sudan, and Afar region of Ethiopia into coastal Eritrea.
- Temperatures below 20℃ …
Heavy rainfall
Heavy Rainfall Advisory: Kenya, Somalia and Ethiopia
Considering the rainfall events during the past week over some areas in Somalia, Kenya and Ethiopia, heavy rainfall is expected in northern Kenya, south-eastern Ethiopia, and …
Heavy rainfall
Advisory: Considering the rainfall events during the past week over some areas in Somalia and the expected heavy to exceptionally-heavy rainfall over the country during this week, all the stakeholders are advised to take …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer daily-mean temperatures above 28oC is expected in southern Sudan, Afar region of Ethiopia, and northern Kenya.
- Moderate daily-mean temperatures between 20-28oC is expected in wider part of Sudan and South …
