Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
31 March - 07 April 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most of southern Tanzania, central to southern Ethiopia, western and northern parts of South Sudan into southern parts of Sudan.
- Less than usual rainfall expected most parts of Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, western and northern Tanzania, southern and eastern Kenya, as well as a few regions in south-western Somalia and southern parts of South Sudan.
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over parts of southern Tanzania and isolated areas in central to southern Ethiopia.
- There is a likelihood of Flooding incidences over the flood prone areas over southern and north-eastern Ethiopia and central to north-western Rwanda.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over most highland regions across the GHA.
Mean temperatures
- Elevated temperatures exceeding 32℃ expected over most parts of central to eastern South Sudan and south-eastern parts of Sudan.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over parts of the Ethiopian highlands, central to western Kenya and western regions of both Rwanda and Burundi, and parts of south-western Tanzania.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress in the Danger category expected over the northern regions of South Sudan and south-eastern parts of Sudan, as well as eastern parts of both Tanzania, Kenya and south-western parts of Somalia.
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of southern Tanzania, southern Ethiopia and western regions of South Sudan, Rwanda and Burundi.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of Kenya, South Sudan, eastern Rwanda, parts of Burundi, central to northern Tanzania, southern and northern Somalia, and parts of southern Sudan and western Uganda.
Weekly Forecasts
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Heavy rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (top 10 % in the record) is expected over the southern parts of Burundi, and central and eastern parts of Tanzania. This indicates a reduction in the heavy rainfall compared to the previous …
Heavy rainfall
Rainfall Forecast 15 - 22 Dec
Headline: Relatively heavy rainfall is expected over the coastal parts of northern Somalia, Djibouti, and Sudan while the season remains active in Tanzania and Burundi.
- Heavy rainfall between 50 …
Heavy rainfall
Headlines: Wetter conditions are expected in southern Tanzania and Burundi.
- Heavy heavy rainfall between 100 - 200 mm (within the top 10 % on record) is expected in localized areas of central and southern Tanzania. …
Temperature forecast
- Warm temperatures above 28℃ expected in parts of Turkana, Marsabit, Garissa, and Wajir counties in Kenya, Afar region in Ethiopia, parts of southern Somalia, and extreme southern Tanzania.
- Moderate temperatures in the range 20-28℃ are …